TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,718

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes49c902.42$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.618151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d6f…a8e4backed Yes43c652.17$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No60c525.95$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.031,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes45c524.79$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.599428.7%27 W · 67 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes16c517.54$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5842130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c476.07$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.1912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed No62c380.96$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.175356.6%30 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb3a…8daabacked No78c376.57$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.165756.1%32 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes31c363.78$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6231341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes18c361.73$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.561,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes30c338.17$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.611,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No66c268.54$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.32,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes53c220.29$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.931,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes34c219.48$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.631,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed Yes34c200.81$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.289333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c189.77$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes30c153.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.681,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c142.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.872,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes16c134.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.024,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes25c127.02$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.238,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c126.52$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.37,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No54c120.21$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.392,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No55c113.17$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3538961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a8…aff0backed No46c108$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3214944.3%66 W · 83 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes28c99.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7921641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes46c99.04$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5668335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes33c97.85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8521142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No20c95.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7328839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No73c92.46$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7642469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c94…5a2bbacked No69c89.15$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.38417.9%15 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Yes33c88.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.243850%19 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No78c87.89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4357038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No74c87.18$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6833567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes22c86.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1681234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes30c80.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0328119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.13,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes28c76.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.521,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No66c75.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5724370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes39c74.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2470133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes35c70.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5328648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes33c69.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9239966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1a3…b156backed Yes35c66.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.383148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes30c63.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8845619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No68c59.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9616548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No70c59.15$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.952,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa565…615abacked Yes36c58.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.042857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No78c57.53$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6642976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No66c54.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.829,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes45c53.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.092,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked No57c52.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5544147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes29c51.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8233243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes31c50.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8317135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes27c49.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4998738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes27c49.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.499142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes28c49.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9721235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No58c49.53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.81,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb060…9572backed Yes43c49.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.989750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes36c48.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.426434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa661…9d2ebacked No59c48.74$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.891442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa55a…0c43backed Yes27c48.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.056827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes45c47.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.441733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes26c47.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.435,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No48c46.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.091,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes42c43.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3116651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93ed…35c4backed No67c43.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.317861.2%109 W · 69 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No47c41.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5534057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes31c40.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4539535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…c61bbacked No76c40.02$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.535655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cd…aecdbacked No49c38.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.588561.2%52 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf040…d11fbacked Yes53c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.541266.7%8 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1acb…1e38backed No59c36.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.151241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02e4…416fbacked No66c36.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.442433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes34c36.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4825447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3e6…762ebacked Yes51c35.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.073043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes36c35.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4918242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes31c34.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No70c34.27$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2840777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No68c32.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.442,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…d923backed Yes39c32.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.538436.9%31 W · 53 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No76c32.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9115155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No73c32.14$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8472952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No74c31.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.321676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes40c31.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5413943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x069e…4636backed No70c30.35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.13447.1%16 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No58c30.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7137533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.266735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.914637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.658164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa255…2ffcbacked Yes41c26.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1937…ac3ebacked No72c25.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.221050%5 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a99…1838backed No78c25.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.69770.1%68 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick75cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No60c21.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.72,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No67c21.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1217376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No47c21.28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2817855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40fb…b7afbacked No70c20.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.247460.8%45 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd611…53c8backed No71c20.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.867277.8%56 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe45…fd22backed No65c20.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.094955.1%27 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.