World Politics · resolved market
US issues Do-Not-Travel warning for Jalisco State by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdea8b39c460c863edbcc3db88fef15a4237041b4c8a8ca3293f7b497f4205e70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 79c | 9,452$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,952.48 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 36c | 7,041$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…586cbacked Yes | 23c | 4,202$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…6abebacked Yes | 11c | 2,715$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,480$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.39 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13dc…eb83backed Yes | 23c | 1,560$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +7.0wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 1,316$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.83 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 17c | 1,186$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.38 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 17c | 1,111$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.87 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…0978backed Yes | 15c | 1,094$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…ab04backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 906.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 32c | 885.85$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.85 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 12c | 824.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 24c | 799.4$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.86 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 20c | 693.36$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.17 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…928fbacked Yes | 18c | 638.88$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356d…9929backed Yes | 8c | 625.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 70c | 624$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.14 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08dc…37d0backed Yes | 8c | 558.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 17c | 557.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 78c | 522.33$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3b…0a44backed Yes | 22c | 456.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 13c | 449.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 23c | 445.78$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4260…5e65backed Yes | 17c | 439.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…2d35backed Yes | 11c | 436.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…0df8backed Yes | 14c | 423.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236e…338abacked Yes | 14c | 409.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 378.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5e…9ee5backed Yes | 23c | 368.91$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 328.72$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0483…46d0backed Yes | 16c | 314.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 9c | 308.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 301.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 66c | 300.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…0d3cbacked Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 23c | 276.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 251.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 251.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 16c | 250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 77c | 250$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…04febacked Yes | 15c | 238$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…ed58backed Yes | 21c | 200.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa247…b7a2backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +13.2wins | +0.49per pick | 29cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 38c | 187.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…7905backed Yes | 11c | 183.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 16c | 157.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…0a88backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 63c | 136.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…3af6backed Yes | 15c | 132.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e6…d304backed Yes | 24c | 125.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba9c…d98dbacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…7825backed No | 77c | 119.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 20c | 107$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…3a98backed Yes | 23c | 104.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8b9dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…f38ebacked Yes | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…353fbacked No | 65c | 91.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e9…cfb0backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 22cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Yes | 35c | 73.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…a4abbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 38c | 58.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +11.7wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…570bbacked Yes | 26c | 57.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 56.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a46…c587backed No | 77c | 55.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5418…5d25backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7188…f1b7backed No | 77c | 46.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3105…43e3backed Yes | 24c | 45.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…355ebacked No | 77c | 43.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…3ab9backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…e64ebacked No | 78c | 31.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…2f64backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…bf3bbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…c20cbacked No | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc73…d73abacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…2c24backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…a684backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.