Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA dip to $152 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x927287734ef1acb6333bdcdcb369e066d0d81c8c5cee97427c885b393a45aee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4194…9809backed Yes | 14c | 3,824$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 17c | 3,561$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.04 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,746$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 19c | 1,546$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.31 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 17c | 996.57$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.05 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 16c | 980.06$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.82 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 13c | 969.58$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 15c | 666.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 498.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 18c | 498.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 78c | 420$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd227…dc03backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6b…fa9ebacked Yes | 26c | 384.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 13c | 380$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fc…8e74backed Yes | 20c | 367.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 353.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…b858backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 12c | 269.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 245.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…cae1backed No | 77c | 213.58$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 14c | 209.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 134.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 12c | 129.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…66afbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…b847backed Yes | 28c | 120.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 118.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 57c | 117.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 12c | 111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6e…42d4backed No | 77c | 103.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 12c | 94.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7d…f070backed No | 77c | 72.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 17c | 64.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 20c | 60.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c9…a1fcbacked No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f7…aedebacked Yes | 23c | 45.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…de3cbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed No | 74c | 22.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 77c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…8bfabacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA dip to $152 in March?this page
- Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $164 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $176 in March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $184 in March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $192 in March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $208 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $216 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $228 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $244 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $260 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.