Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA dip to $184 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4bcc74e2890abb056101fc9d18ff0df01c75a0ff3644bcf18579b880c69e242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 11,110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005b…791abacked No | 0c | 7,503$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed No | 1c | 6,520$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd070…efe5backed No | 2c | 5,496$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…cf16backed No | 2c | 4,690$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 0c | 3,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88a…7e26backed No | 1c | 1,704$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed No | 1c | 1,580$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed No | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 1c | 942.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 919$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 2c | 787.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…dcc6backed No | 5c | 376.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc3…45cfbacked No | 9c | 212.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e31…2f76backed No | 5c | 196.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…2900backed No | 53c | 31.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA dip to $184 in March?this page
- Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $152 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $164 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $176 in March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $192 in March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $208 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $216 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $228 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $244 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $260 in March?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.