TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,411

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,411 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3159…5f35backed Yes0c22,197$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea7d…15f3backed Yes0c5,769$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25b3…9dc1backed Yes58c1,870$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d80…4da3backed No42c1,870$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf45d…44c2backed Yes60c1,850$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b53…07dfbacked No40c1,850$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1101100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes2c1,800$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441822.2%4 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No23c1,237$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.4257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes2c1,042$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.22828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x711a…ce09backed Yes77c627.1$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.861833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No50c583.35$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.4991967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes64c563$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.886,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No22c504.24$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.7913748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No11c428.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.8559742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes42c419.2$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.431,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No29c410.13$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.571,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes10c400$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes47c358$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.184,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No55c336.06$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.233,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No24c324.41$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.5659121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes63c303.87$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.5225742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1687823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No60c279.99$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.011,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6db…810ebacked Yes63c271.96$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.111040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No11c265.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.7834219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes78c225.17$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.116437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No13c202.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.651,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9133058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No22c199.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.8586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes71c186.71$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.011,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No27c172.41$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.5858349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3f…6525backed Yes69c170$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.591540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes43c169.34$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4438840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes45c168$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7333139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8112…dfb4backed Yes67c165.1$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed No30c158.45$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1977428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes42c154.55$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No27c150.37$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.271,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf5…9610backed No30c149.93$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0043…dadebacked Yes42c139.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.483923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No53c119.77$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.558,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes55c118$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2825029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c109.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.742,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4635…6c48backed Yes48c105$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.46735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6670133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No50c99.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes49c99.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4940438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes54c99.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.742326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No22c99.51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes50c99.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes46c93.63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0211337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No33c92.39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8627079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c91.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc70…1103backed Yes60c80$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.841241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No32c79.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9326169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No25c71.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No51c71$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.032,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes44c70.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1552245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes47c69.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.534337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes48c62.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes46c59.95$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes46c57.23$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.257,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No52c53.19$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.314,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbea…e2b0backed No35c53.11$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.761346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes59c50.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7632444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed No54c49.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9928737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked No48c49.97$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.986939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No27c45.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.192,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x501c…34d8backed Yes67c44.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No58c43.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.313,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ef9…3f42backed Yes72c42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.421030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-32%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5edb…92fbbacked Yes80c40.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.470148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed Yes49c39.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3334970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No64c39.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.271,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed No51c38.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9449941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No34c38.78$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.71,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes52c38.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeedf…769cbacked Yes51c37.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.161145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes76c37.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6435843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes63c37.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.756434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc550…dbe8backed Yes54c37.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed No33c35.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9455919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f7…f6c5backed Yes78c33.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.251060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No50c33.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.551,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbac…435fbacked Yes61c32.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13e6…c310backed Yes62c32.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8615911.3%18 W · 141 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2423…4137backed Yes63c31.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-42.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8116…b2a8backed No42c31.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1512152.1%63 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.453,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.76643.9%29 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f0…c9aabacked Yes51c29.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db6…4894backed Yes45c28.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134339.5%17 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd68d…fe1dbacked No50c28.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.43560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes68c28.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.383759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes53c28.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.