TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,059 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7049…2df7backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5cb…c1dcbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No0c3,517$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5543021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes49c1,977$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.4448331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked No2c1,800$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441822.2%4 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0be5…0db3backed No78c1,154$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.572138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes5c856.97$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.0635018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c815.15$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.352,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No62c681.39$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.9686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c555.34$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.586,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes18c479.76$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.6324216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes17c462.92$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.241,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes11c430.76$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.131649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes16c427.22$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.391,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa52f…8897backed Yes27c411.16$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.521631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes7c399.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.991,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes11c374.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.782326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes18c368.81$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.0125742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes23c364.11$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.614,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes11c352.58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.6334319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bfe…b127backed Yes28c341.81$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.697614.5%11 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes70c330.58$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3222236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b3f…6525backed Yes26c309.99$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.81540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes13c307.42$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.961,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes17c300$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2497823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dec…a0ccbacked No77c294.22$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.15366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No10c287.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes70c264.45$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.458835.2%31 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No71c230.5$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes20c225$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18014338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c209.52$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.8417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes24c207.32$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.181,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes18c200$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16528737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes13c200$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17470133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes56c194.26$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.072,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No72c189.6$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No76c175.7$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.351,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No77c160.38$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.991,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed No76c150.78$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8486226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No71c149.92$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes35c140$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4556434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd67e…e894backed No8c135.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes16c121$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1433058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes14c110.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4364333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed No73c109.59$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No74c109.06$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.23,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c2…7a17backed No76c103$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.524339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8127047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7340438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4826…79dabacked Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef81…6d75backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+33.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x025b…1793backed Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5212632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes22c99.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.095527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa90…488cbacked Yes14c96.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+222.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes28c90.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8250648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes13c89.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.591,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No73c86.03$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.428,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes15c82.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.139529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes15c80$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6826236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ff5…3489backed Yes17c80$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.41145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No78c75.15$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1b…a999backed No79c73.65$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.182152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No70c70.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5552245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2895…2574backed No75c70$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.83964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+34.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes29c65.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.483033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+225.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc83f…f2d7backed Yes19c63.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.15944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick19cpaid+95.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc88…2331backed Yes19c62.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.88616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes26c61.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1159121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4210…dd70backed Yes36c54.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8417040%68 W · 102 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No67c52.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8438840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b25…51eebacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes29c49.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4911337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No54c45.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.541,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ea…98e6backed No78c45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.053262.5%20 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick73cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc97c…b49ebacked No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-56.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b81…b68bbacked No71c32.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.924652.2%24 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x07d9…9397backed No74c27.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc65a…a48ebacked No74c26.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.837764.9%50 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Yes61c26.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.264520%9 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No72c23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5633567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f7…f6c5backed Yes49c20.76$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.641060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x274d…ebbabacked No76c19.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.58540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-41.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No77c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.