Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb0e08af8845b24a8278b108ec22472a07e829ca573978438663d26907945636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,306 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3159…5f35backed Yes | 0c | 44,837$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7d…15f3backed Yes | 0c | 10,716$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2640…fe93backed Yes | 28c | 3,636$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…c091backed No | 72c | 1,225$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4521…67f0backed No | 72c | 1,216$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b5…8411backed No | 72c | 1,195$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 23c | 825.94$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 611.92$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.51 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 14c | 510.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked Yes | 23c | 506.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 17c | 503$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 499.96$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 22c | 455$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 355.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 20c | 339.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 22c | 338.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…40c6backed No | 76c | 336$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 15c | 326.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 29c | 304.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 19c | 303.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 10c | 296.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 295.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…2987backed Yes | 34c | 293.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes | 22c | 274.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 262.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 248.86$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…ce09backed Yes | 29c | 248.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 17c | 243.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 241.56$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba47…df90backed No | 75c | 236.84$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 234.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 230.91$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da0…bff6backed Yes | 30c | 221.72$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 69c | 219.4$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 20c | 212.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 78c | 209.28$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 29c | 190.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked Yes | 39c | 177.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 177.13$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 177.11$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 24c | 163.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 22c | 143.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…0db3backed Yes | 24c | 136.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 18c | 129.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf198…dfedbacked Yes | 18c | 123.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 121.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…6525backed Yes | 21c | 119.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 23c | 116.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 23c | 109.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 107.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 18c | 100.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 14c | 100.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 100.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a8…130cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b38…2458backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad2…eb4bbacked No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 21c | 99.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 98.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 22c | 92.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 32c | 92.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb44…e0b5backed No | 79c | 86.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 25c | 84.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 73c | 84.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 36c | 82.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 80.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 24c | 80.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d79…3375backed No | 73c | 80.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked Yes | 23c | 79.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 25c | 79.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 33c | 76.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…0f78backed Yes | 27c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 72.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Yes | 22c | 71.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 19c | 70.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 61.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 71c | 55.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 22c | 51.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 28c | 51.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 20c | 50.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 24c | 50.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…a628backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…1cd2backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…aee6backed Yes | 22c | 49.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 28c | 49.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 21c | 49.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 76c | 48.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 31c | 46.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…901dbacked Yes | 24c | 46.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 73c | 41.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.