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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,306

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,306 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3159…5f35backed Yes0c44,837$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea7d…15f3backed Yes0c10,716$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2640…fe93backed Yes28c3,636$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d12…c091backed No72c1,225$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4521…67f0backed No72c1,216$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b5…8411backed No72c1,195$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes23c825.94$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.535018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes17c611.92$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.511,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes14c510.61$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2196313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba9e…58debacked Yes23c506.31$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.72634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes17c503$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0724216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes25c499.96$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.191,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes22c455$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.851,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes10c399.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c355.28$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.346,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes20c339.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.64337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes22c338.73$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.251,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa428…40c6backed No76c336$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.771361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes15c326.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8536819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes29c304.13$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6825742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes19c303.15$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.473333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes10c296.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.924418.2%8 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes21c295.93$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.58,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b6…2987backed Yes34c293.73$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.01837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes22c274.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.62326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c262.56$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.287,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No78c248.86$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9491967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x711a…ce09backed Yes29c248.68$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.051833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes17c243.66$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5259121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No79c241.56$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.693,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba47…df90backed No75c236.84$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.231758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes18c234.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.11,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No78c230.91$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.811,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6da0…bff6backed Yes30c221.72$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No69c219.4$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.991,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes20c212.87$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2177428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No78c209.28$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes29c190.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6322028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0043…dadebacked Yes39c177.51$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.413923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No78c177.13$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.813,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No70c177.11$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.486050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13e6…c310backed Yes24c163.06$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3215911.3%18 W · 141 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes13c150$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes22c143.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.452828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0be5…0db3backed Yes24c136.54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes18c129.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.89724.7%24 W · 73 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf198…dfedbacked Yes18c123.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.031050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c121.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.762,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3f…6525backed Yes21c119.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.781540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes23c116.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274027.5%11 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes23c109.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes19c107.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes18c100.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1433232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes14c100.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.651,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c100.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1436123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34a8…130cbacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b38…2458backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2028737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaad2…eb4bbacked No74c99.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26875%6 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick69cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes21c99.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9940438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes17c98.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.751,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes22c92.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes32c92.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb44…e0b5backed No79c86.43$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.86580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes25c84.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed No73c84.71$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8717433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8677…9724backed Yes36c82.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305540%22 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes15c80.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.153,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes24c80.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.388551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.652,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d79…3375backed No73c80.44$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked Yes23c79.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.075139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes25c79.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203040%12 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes33c76.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.032,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf27…0f78backed Yes27c73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.67475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes27c72.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.567,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3b81…b68bbacked Yes22c71.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.774652.2%24 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes19c70.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4552245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes18c61.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.291,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No71c55.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9532548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x324f…15b1backed Yes22c51.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.294022.5%9 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed Yes28c51.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2834970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61bb…66f2backed Yes20c50.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.174736.2%17 W · 30 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+88.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3db6…4894backed Yes24c50.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124339.5%17 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8002…a628backed No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x774c…d9d0backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1eaf…1cd2backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510e…aee6backed Yes22c49.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes28c49.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1432444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes21c49.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.555919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No76c48.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6433567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes24c47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2819617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8288…4c83backed Yes31c46.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.344535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5220…901dbacked Yes24c46.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.241421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick46cpaid-57.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked No73c41.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1612357.7%71 W · 52 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee89…cfb3backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.470148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.