TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,539 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes19c1,850$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.7235018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes9c908.67$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5424216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No80c835.7$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.5458349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes9c787.43$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8334618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes17c666.03$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.446,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes4c648.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.526236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes11c620.17$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.398,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes8c421.6$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.931,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes9c361.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes9c339.48$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.847,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb746…2540backed Yes16c332.51$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.521233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x774c…d9d0backed Yes14c330$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.951942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes20c329.3$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4816036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes23c292.61$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.991,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No79c290.73$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5286050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa52f…8897backed Yes18c284.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x203e…b7e1backed No67c269.97$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.791369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed No78c267.73$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.97347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3159…5f35backed Yes11c266.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c248.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.132,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes16c235$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.61,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b3f…6525backed Yes25c227.26$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.121540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes12c215.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8358422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1096313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1621919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes11c199.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2236123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes13c195.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9756434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes12c186$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.321,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes9c180.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.99429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes7c162.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.367823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc440…6149backed Yes12c159.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.363426.5%9 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes17c153.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3533058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes11c149.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8112…dfb4backed Yes44c136.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes8c130$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes13c128.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.093517.1%6 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-39.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c119.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.727,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1bfc…fe3cbacked Yes15c115$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1e4…6dd7backed Yes16c113$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b45…375cbacked Yes16c111$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdee4…6baebacked Yes11c111$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes13c110$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d35…84f4backed Yes11c106.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked No70c101.6$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2654143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1812932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0be5…0db3backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4826…79dabacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf516…1ea1backed No60c98.67$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.475135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes22c92.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc3…05acbacked Yes12c86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6dcc…9c2ebacked Yes16c86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdfe…d609backed Yes14c84.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes19c83.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1211337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No78c81$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90c4…46d8backed Yes22c79.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.733050%15 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes38c79.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a5…e304backed Yes20c78.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.443551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes41c72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6116437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2287…139ebacked No77c68.83$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.073250%16 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes23c67.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3525839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.541460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes29c61.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1010154.5%55 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.528737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1217433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa393…037dbacked No79c47.16$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x726e…4f5bbacked No80c42.97$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.69955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c2…d167backed No60c41.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.755425.9%14 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1103…fd39backed Yes25c40.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1032044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc97c…b49ebacked No78c38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.361631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-56.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc08a…671dbacked Yes27c37.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec9d…057abacked Yes28c36.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9204…d1a8backed Yes29c34.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1529459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa726…0dadbacked Yes31c32.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.03560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No70c30.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.181,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2287…c70bbacked Yes33c30.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.372466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80c7…698cbacked No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No70c28.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6444553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No78c28.09$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No78c27.72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2163656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e18…65bebacked Yes38c26.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65a…a48ebacked No76c26.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.317764.9%50 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No52c25.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.499961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d7…4fcfbacked Yes40c25.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c81…c2bdbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb342…79e3backed No79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.252065%13 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x658c…786bbacked Yes42c24.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a5…c6fdbacked Yes42c24.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.09560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d99…e313backed Yes42c23.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3c…e6f5backed Yes42c23.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe4…a1a5backed Yes42c23.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.041764.7%11 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa852…18a8backed Yes44c22.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x197c…0996backed Yes44c22.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.