Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc46bdb49e6100d2433cf3cdbbc5c4354f8f2d1775098a222874e4e8526ed1f3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,539 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,850$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.72 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 9c | 908.67$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 835.7$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.54 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 9c | 787.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 666.03$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 4c | 648.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 620.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 421.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 361.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 339.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…2540backed Yes | 16c | 332.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 14c | 330$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 20c | 329.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 23c | 292.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 290.73$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 18c | 284.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…b7e1backed No | 67c | 269.97$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 78c | 267.73$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3159…5f35backed Yes | 11c | 266.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 248.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 16c | 235$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…6525backed Yes | 25c | 227.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 12c | 215.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 11c | 199.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 13c | 195.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 186$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 9c | 180.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 7c | 162.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 12c | 159.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 17c | 153.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 149.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8112…dfb4backed Yes | 44c | 136.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 13c | 128.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 119.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…fe3cbacked Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e4…6dd7backed Yes | 16c | 113$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…375cbacked Yes | 16c | 111$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee4…6baebacked Yes | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…84f4backed Yes | 11c | 106.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 70c | 101.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…0db3backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…79dabacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed No | 60c | 98.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 22c | 92.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc3…05acbacked Yes | 12c | 86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcc…9c2ebacked Yes | 16c | 86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfe…d609backed Yes | 14c | 84.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 19c | 83.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…46d8backed Yes | 22c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 38c | 79.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 20c | 78.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 41c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked No | 77c | 68.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 23c | 67.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 29c | 61.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…037dbacked No | 79c | 47.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…4f5bbacked No | 80c | 42.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed No | 60c | 41.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…fd39backed Yes | 25c | 40.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…b49ebacked No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc08a…671dbacked Yes | 27c | 37.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec9d…057abacked Yes | 28c | 36.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9204…d1a8backed Yes | 29c | 34.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa726…0dadbacked Yes | 31c | 32.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 30.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…c70bbacked Yes | 33c | 30.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…698cbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 70c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 78c | 28.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 78c | 27.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…65bebacked Yes | 38c | 26.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 52c | 25.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d7…4fcfbacked Yes | 40c | 25.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…c2bdbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658c…786bbacked Yes | 42c | 24.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…c6fdbacked Yes | 42c | 24.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d99…e313backed Yes | 42c | 23.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…e6f5backed Yes | 42c | 23.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…a1a5backed Yes | 42c | 23.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…18a8backed Yes | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…0996backed Yes | 44c | 22.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.