Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f33c916c103bc207077c1601003b798bece8ba5012472c33f0af9e5cc53b762
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,996 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa05…6140backed Yes | 1c | 1,127$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 1,100$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.86 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…6120backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 8c | 853$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 847.03$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.43 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 23c | 772.27$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.14 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 571.71$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 513.08$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 487$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 58c | 473.4$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.88 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92e…4ef4backed Yes | 36c | 464.9$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 13c | 463.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 14c | 425$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 7c | 411.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 38c | 400.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.27 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 8c | 399.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 370.72$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 34c | 346.25$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 13c | 345$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 19c | 331.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked Yes | 10c | 300.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 295.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 276.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…6525backed Yes | 27c | 263.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 12c | 260.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 14c | 250.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 34c | 249.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 15c | 248.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 26c | 239.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 24c | 228.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 23c | 213.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 10c | 204.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 201.45$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 193.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 190.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 190$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 19c | 186.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 68c | 183.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 177.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 13c | 171.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…8decbacked Yes | 38c | 162.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…2331backed Yes | 16c | 160.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 37c | 160$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 157$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 69c | 150.21$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 63c | 148.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 139.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed Yes | 16c | 136$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 35c | 135.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 15c | 135$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 120.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 115.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a8…130cbacked No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 34c | 104.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 34c | 104.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 103.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 41c | 102.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f44…07f0backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a8…e7bcbacked No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 28c | 99.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 15c | 99.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 68c | 96.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 68c | 96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 40c | 92.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 87.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 83.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 67c | 82.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 65c | 76.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 29c | 71.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 34c | 70.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 69c | 67.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed Yes | 28c | 55.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 32c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb44…e0b5backed No | 78c | 53.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 33c | 53.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f0…c9aabacked Yes | 47c | 52.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 36c | 52.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 38c | 51.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…0db3backed No | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…7562backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 24c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.