TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,996

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,996 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa05…6140backed Yes1c1,127$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-45%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No75c1,100$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.8691967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x365a…6120backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes8c853$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1531341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes12c847.03$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.431,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes23c772.27$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.141,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No79c571.71$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c513.08$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.6917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes11c487$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.761,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No58c473.4$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.883,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc92e…4ef4backed Yes36c464.9$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.02650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes13c463.29$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.211644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes14c425$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8142857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes7c411.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0434617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1762…c83ebacked Yes38c400.5$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.27248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes10c399.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes8c399.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3057044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No60c370.72$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.851,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes34c346.25$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6438840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes13c345$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8538515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes19c331.13$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2935018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba9e…58debacked Yes10c300.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2129922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes12c295.78$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.561,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes10c276.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3f…6525backed Yes27c263.16$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.021540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes12c260.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.21,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes14c250.27$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.411,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes34c249.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9556434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes15c248.65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4358422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed Yes26c239.02$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.025356.6%30 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes24c228.88$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5615133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes23c213.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e6…c602backed Yes10c204.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.313452.9%18 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No67c201.45$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.92,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6525742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.774,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c193.56$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.467,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes22c190.53$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7677428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c190$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.426,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes19c186.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3621333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No68c183.97$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9715155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c177.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.582,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes13c171.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.95527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe877…8decbacked Yes38c162.89$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.73540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc88…2331backed Yes16c160.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes37c160$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.210650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c157$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.693,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked No69c150.21$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.136939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed No63c148.23$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.47576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes8c139.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.811,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfca…2db8backed Yes16c136$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.221020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes35c135.3$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.711337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x025b…1793backed Yes15c135$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9612632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes32c120.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.877,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No65c115.91$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.923,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes14c110$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.419426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a8…130cbacked No80c110$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.033100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes11c105$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5519617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9c4…e119backed Yes34c104.65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.588940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes34c104.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7511128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c103.86$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.238,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes41c102.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9217338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2366…580fbacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1912932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0645…c08ebacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396338.1%24 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f44…07f0backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4a8…e7bcbacked No66c99.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes28c99.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9940438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec8e…39b0backed Yes15c99.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No68c96.4$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7452571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No68c96$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0831868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes40c92.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes36c87.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3864333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No69c83.1$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.481,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2895…2574backed No67c82.64$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.63964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+34.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No65c76.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.922,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes29c71.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3425029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes34c70.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0752245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbea…e2b0backed No66c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.971346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2779…62dfbacked Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7825119.9%50 W · 201 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed No69c67.44$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2113523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes29c65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1735843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2170148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x252b…dfc9backed Yes28c55.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.286144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x324f…15b1backed Yes32c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.344022.5%9 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb44…e0b5backed No78c53.89$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.78580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1be…3578backed Yes33c53.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.925626.8%15 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f0…c9aabacked Yes47c52.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes36c52.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e6…c310backed Yes38c51.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6115911.3%18 W · 141 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0be5…0db3backed No72c51$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.082138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b79…7562backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.528737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes30c49.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9926426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d73…43f6backed Yes24c49.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9911619.8%23 W · 93 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.