Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa4e89495fa48358c41d2c436c3ce30f3f24fb6b68f8c21b34f294ef18c83c0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 1,550$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.63 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 427.4$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.72 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 55c | 324.03$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.08 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 18c | 196.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 61c | 178.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.87 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9727…8248backed Yes | 57c | 173.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 68c | 163.95$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 28c | 158.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 144.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 67c | 131.31$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 61c | 125$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 43c | 122.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 40c | 118.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 63c | 112.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 101.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 98.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 35c | 93.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed No | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 61c | 84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed8c…d055backed Yes | 41c | 78.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 27c | 77.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 74c | 77.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 61c | 68.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed Yes | 72c | 61.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…87aebacked No | 60c | 59.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 60c | 50.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…eb9dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 46.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 41c | 45.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 45c | 44.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 44.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…ba5cbacked Yes | 70c | 42.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 26c | 42.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 58c | 40.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 59c | 38.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 63c | 37.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 66c | 36.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 59c | 31.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 52c | 29.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 45c | 26.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 26.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 59c | 25.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 76c | 25.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 60c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 57c | 20.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 70c | 19.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 72c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C or higher on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.