Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a4abe0ea59478fe15eb619cc3c1a15f399f5011208a357b3bb4da377b6f78a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 1,150$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 989.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 70c | 422.05$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 385.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.89 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 374.51$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 78c | 229.92$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 25c | 222.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 28c | 216$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 43c | 203.52$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 24c | 199.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…8e7dbacked No | 73c | 181.9$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 73c | 163.67$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 146.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 137.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…6748backed No | 78c | 134.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 130.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 17c | 128$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 120.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 19c | 112.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 46c | 105.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…f89dbacked Yes | 22c | 91.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 87.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 44c | 85.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 84.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 20c | 82.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…2540backed No | 71c | 76.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 28c | 71.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 73c | 61.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 54.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 26c | 43.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 42.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 72c | 41.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 29c | 40.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 29c | 40.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…eb9dbacked Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 37.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 36.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…1edebacked No | 72c | 34.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 77c | 31.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 72c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfae…b5ccbacked No | 72c | 23.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 76c | 23.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3e…bd35backed No | 75c | 22.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 77c | 21.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e03…6f79backed No | 72c | 20.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 73c | 20.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 75c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed No | 75c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…b72dbacked No | 71c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 76c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C or higher on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.