Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f184ffae734b715d6b1679333b13790708f9e0892f4d3cf5835fdc77c8023bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6f7…87aebacked Yes | 0c | 21,848$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 13c | 766.75$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 3c | 732.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 19c | 638.59$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.43 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed Yes | 9c | 489.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed Yes | 4c | 386.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 269.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 6c | 260.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 4c | 246.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 217.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 49c | 196$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.91 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…19a4backed Yes | 11c | 194.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked Yes | 14c | 182.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 172.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 13c | 166.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 13c | 163.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 8c | 141.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 49c | 140.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…7e41backed Yes | 15c | 128.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 39c | 128.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 52c | 116.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 113.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed Yes | 11c | 97.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…567bbacked Yes | 12c | 96.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 13c | 91.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 14c | 82.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 16c | 81.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 26c | 76.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…de2cbacked Yes | 14c | 73.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 28c | 70.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 48c | 67.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 50.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 41.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 29.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 68c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C or higher on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.