Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or below on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ba5fe1ada86ac4e3beb62c09ca4f174867416eea92b51627f6e2364226213bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 9c | 955.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked No | 16c | 920.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.59 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked Yes | 57c | 462.26$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.43 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 372.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.06 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…fa17backed No | 18c | 367$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 24c | 335.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.12 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 16c | 275.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.1 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 28c | 214.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 19c | 214.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.11 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 197.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked Yes | 55c | 182.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed No | 32c | 156.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 39c | 150.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 62c | 148.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 12c | 143.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.11 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 21c | 139.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 42c | 126.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 33c | 104.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 26c | 100.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked No | 16c | 92.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 92.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 72c | 91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 67c | 81.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 43c | 79.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 34c | 72.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked No | 41c | 71.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…04b8backed Yes | 61c | 69.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 55c | 69.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 16c | 66.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 34c | 62.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked No | 37c | 57.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 41c | 48.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 40c | 47.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 74c | 46.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 69c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Yes | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 41c | 42.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 78c | 40.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…20a2backed Yes | 68c | 39.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 37.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Yes | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed Yes | 76c | 36.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…1dfbbacked Yes | 74c | 36.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 76c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…16dfbacked No | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 67c | 33.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c2…864dbacked No | 40c | 32.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24e…9903backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…51d4backed Yes | 72c | 31.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked Yes | 79c | 28.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Yes | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 40c | 26.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 57c | 26.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…4853backed Yes | 60c | 25.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 47c | 25.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 61c | 21.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…b773backed Yes | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf87…1949backed Yes | 60c | 18.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed Yes | 68c | 16.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…9811backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 76c | 14.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or below on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 41°C or higher on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.