Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x750f70e5d3c932cdab2bc104090dfffcf12ef10453a7bbd0920eb9e06890830e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,647 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 1,694$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 1,278$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed No | 3c | 1,023$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 2c | 802.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…ec5dbacked No | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 402.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 3c | 372.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 361.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 283.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 14c | 237.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.95 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 75c | 233.07$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.14 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 24c | 218.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.48 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 45c | 209.82$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.82 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.99 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 47c | 185$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed No | 62c | 176.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 154.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.12 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 140.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.09 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 9c | 123.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 25c | 99.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 95.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 21c | 93.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…1109backed Yes | 23c | 88.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 14c | 84.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…f89dbacked Yes | 19c | 79.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 75c | 75.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 75.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 16c | 70.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…4e7cbacked No | 75c | 60.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 25c | 50.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 42.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073f…300bbacked No | 77c | 33.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…6d21backed No | 76c | 32.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…d866backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 74c | 14.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 13.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or below on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 41°C or higher on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.