Earnings · resolved market
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc699d899015aa42b75decc2a93737017bc0ffba0628d5bec4a4ae991d0f94e35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 13c | 1,597$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.57 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 16c | 1,400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 22c | 853.45$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.96 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked No | 9c | 638.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…954abacked Yes | 80c | 625.8$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 4c | 492.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…3d2abacked Yes | 79c | 430.9$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 11c | 350.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 6c | 314.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…e623backed Yes | 78c | 299.96$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 17c | 271.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked No | 16c | 231.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 28c | 227.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…4d45backed Yes | 71c | 226$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 216.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 214.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 18c | 201.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…7f28backed No | 7c | 172.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 15c | 132.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 38c | 122.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…935fbacked No | 21c | 119.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 14c | 116.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked No | 18c | 113.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4a…9577backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed No | 20c | 98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 78c | 93.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…4aa5backed No | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…dd94backed No | 29c | 69.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…3827backed No | 19c | 68.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed Yes | 80c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6194…3d95backed Yes | 75c | 54.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…1f9fbacked No | 25c | 40.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 77c | 40.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…1b4fbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…28e4backed Yes | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 75c | 14.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.