Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b2988a3771620d5a1cf908d8cc885e2088ca180a71c0d8d340a402e7f512b18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,460 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…3da0backed Yes | 22c | 568.71$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.23 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Yes | 54c | 285.25$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.83 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 11c | 260$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 79c | 245$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.55 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 33c | 221.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 49c | 156.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 24c | 121.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f00dbacked No | 36c | 112.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 83.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 53c | 75.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 53.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed No | 37c | 47.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 28c | 46.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked Yes | 24c | 45.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 33c | 35.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 80c | 34.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf556…d2c2backed Yes | 79c | 31.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…a575backed Yes | 76c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 23.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…20bebacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked No | 76c | 21.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…1efdbacked No | 69c | 19.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $160-$165 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170-$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175-$180 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$160 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.