TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,849
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,164

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,849 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x195e…5b32backed Yes25c1,278$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.15016%8 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes24c1,001$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.9328718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes23c759.16$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.8465625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes12c741.42$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.451,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdab3…3bf5backed No75c672.02$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.526852.9%36 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d38…824cbacked Yes46c632$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.083129%9 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes10c571.7$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8996313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No66c504.49$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.4286050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed No68c434.66$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1218727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c422.34$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.083,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb7e…1757backed Yes17c399.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6811332.7%37 W · 76 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No73c399.11$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.9917243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50bc…d38fbacked Yes50c346.95$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1721127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf730…8a0abacked Yes30c330.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No73c323.85$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.7384759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c295.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa52f…8897backed Yes32c269.16$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.211631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes30c266.32$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.91,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes18c261.42$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.771,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c253.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes20c241.72$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3954037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed Yes15c234.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4532310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed No68c215.23$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.75966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes16c215$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.48623.3%20 W · 66 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4210650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe67…9fcfbacked Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24293.4%1 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-65.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed No77c198.79$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.658176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa462…0fb2backed Yes28c182.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4911920.2%24 W · 95 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb550…84fbbacked Yes29c169.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x988e…bd82backed Yes31c165.93$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2212339%48 W · 75 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0031…485abacked Yes21c161.92$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.921637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed Yes24c153.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4427841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes27c151.8$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.066538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c150.72$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.371,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes24c150.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6455919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eee…bac2backed Yes18c150$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.56045%27 W · 33 L-6.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes34c145.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.386139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06b…d7a8backed Yes40c143.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad7…d2fdbacked No64c143.53$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.481450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e4f…d890backed Yes28c139.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.594325.6%11 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No68c133.59$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.354953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes32c130$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3531567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f48…9820backed No71c124.46$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.87862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes25c123.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.952,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes46c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6314251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63cf…9e7cbacked Yes15c120$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.96837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7841…521dbacked Yes27c117.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…0685backed Yes14c114.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.78122.2%18 W · 63 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes20c113.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.583332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed Yes25c106.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.873435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked No77c104.41$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6211359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x41cd…a24abacked Yes27c101.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce15…5c0abacked Yes28c100.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa809…ad85backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252725.9%7 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+70.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes28c99.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.716036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes19c98.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.233228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x838c…5252backed Yes26c96.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No64c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.151,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d81…9f3cbacked Yes21c89.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.970%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No66c89.43$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.637,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b71…9fcdbacked Yes14c86.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.96540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+41%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes18c84.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed No78c84.64$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5116465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa365…5aa9backed Yes24c83.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x229a…dbc8backed Yes35c82.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.711163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No75c80.4$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.421847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2779…62dfbacked Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025119.9%50 W · 201 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes23c79.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1818035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed No73c77.68$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7343050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes25c75.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0115558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes35c74.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9827047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes20c74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.65933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes25c73.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.057950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed No80c71.97$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5210542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes27c69.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.012626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa91f…55afbacked Yes17c68.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8730%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x658d…7a5dbacked Yes21c62.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No73c62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9834457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa393…c8debacked Yes21c60.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.021421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9231…b267backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb96…794cbacked Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb887…649dbacked Yes42c59.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes35c57.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…6732backed Yes27c55.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ed0…6106backed No80c55.02$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.023100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+37.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No72c55.01$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.621,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa331…29b9backed Yes32c53.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xedaa…e117backed Yes31c53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f5…1700backed No77c51.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes27c51.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8610227.5%28 W · 74 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed Yes33c51.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2515759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf2e…e069backed No68c51.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.47366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf66…7887backed Yes41c50.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.78825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes35c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.318842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e0…b5ccbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x383c…d1b8backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x622a…519fbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65da…69d2backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.