Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7452252391e63ae74c88022d4aaf2e3b1502e46d589cfd615ae25fa4af281b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 25c | 1,278$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.1 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 24c | 1,001$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.93 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 759.16$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.84 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 741.42$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed No | 75c | 672.02$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.52 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 46c | 632$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.08 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 571.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 504.49$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.42 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 68c | 434.66$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 422.34$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 17c | 399.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 73c | 399.11$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…d38fbacked Yes | 50c | 346.95$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 30c | 330.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 323.85$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 295.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 32c | 269.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 30c | 266.32$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 261.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 253.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 20c | 241.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 15c | 234.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed No | 68c | 215.23$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 16c | 215$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…9fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 77c | 198.79$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 28c | 182.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…84fbbacked Yes | 29c | 169.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 31c | 165.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…485abacked Yes | 21c | 161.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 24c | 153.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 27c | 151.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 150.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 24c | 150.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 18c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 34c | 145.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…d7a8backed Yes | 40c | 143.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad7…d2fdbacked No | 64c | 143.53$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed Yes | 28c | 139.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 68c | 133.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 32c | 130$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…9820backed No | 71c | 124.46$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 123.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 46c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cf…9e7cbacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…521dbacked Yes | 27c | 117.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed Yes | 14c | 114.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 20c | 113.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 25c | 106.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 77c | 104.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x41cd…a24abacked Yes | 27c | 101.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…5c0abacked Yes | 28c | 100.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa809…ad85backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 28c | 99.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 19c | 98.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed Yes | 26c | 96.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…9f3cbacked Yes | 21c | 89.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 89.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…9fcdbacked Yes | 14c | 86.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +41%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 18c | 84.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 78c | 84.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…5aa9backed Yes | 24c | 83.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229a…dbc8backed Yes | 35c | 82.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 75c | 80.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 23c | 79.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 73c | 77.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 25c | 75.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 35c | 74.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 20c | 74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 25c | 73.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 80c | 71.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes | 27c | 69.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa91f…55afbacked Yes | 17c | 68.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658d…7a5dbacked Yes | 21c | 62.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 73c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…c8debacked Yes | 21c | 60.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…794cbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…649dbacked Yes | 42c | 59.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 27c | 55.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…6106backed No | 80c | 55.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 55.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 32c | 53.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…e117backed Yes | 31c | 53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…1700backed No | 77c | 51.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 27c | 51.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 33c | 51.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…e069backed No | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf66…7887backed Yes | 41c | 50.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e0…b5ccbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x383c…d1b8backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622a…519fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.