TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,514
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,514 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x252d…ad22backed No2c6,338$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7860%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc993…6a45backed No0c3,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-64.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d38…824cbacked No3c3,476$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.593129%9 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes10c2,413$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,178.718727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes59c1,670$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.816852.9%36 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes7c1,409$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.2696313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cf7…9f98backed No25c1,405$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.75933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes11c1,401$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.2583332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No66c1,246$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.517243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No64c1,134$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.5786050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c64…348fbacked No2c999.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202611.5%3 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+476.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes11c980$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87221847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes23c829.9$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.4126339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes8c819.27$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.681,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes38c787.59$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.5565625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes62c778.35$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.696139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes65c679.4$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.2547834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed Yes12c626.21$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.1349543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes11c603.87$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.5519133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes8c524.31$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.855919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes15c504.25$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.396538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No28c461.01$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.261,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c426.81$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa462…0fb2backed Yes9c395.54$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.1411920.2%24 W · 95 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4f…d890backed Yes11c352.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.374325.6%11 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes9c328.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.264245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes17c315$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.052,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes78c304.92$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3211359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x50bc…d38fbacked Yes46c303.57$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.571127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes9c299.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27224010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes16c299.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.991,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes10c277.92$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.719262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes21c264.56$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.881,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65da…69d2backed Yes8c250.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.812425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes20c246.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.791,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes29c231.14$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.358348.2%40 W · 43 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+4.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes11c188.34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.6786847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2f4…dec3backed Yes7c184.42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+367.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd72d…03e7backed Yes10c180$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+884.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes11c168.06$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.975016%8 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes20c164.51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.4293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7184…56d7backed Yes14c162.94$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+71.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed No78c151.67$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8914251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes15c141.48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.8312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0dc5…eda6backed Yes18c138$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.67560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+86.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4e3…4cc6backed Yes16c132.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.741435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes22c130$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.520631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x481d…27ecbacked No79c124.73$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ed3…878abacked Yes9c115.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.67955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+97.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3de5…c157backed Yes38c115$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.833735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes17c107.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3543050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4198…d38fbacked Yes17c107.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.62759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes17c100.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.678,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08f7…7a0ebacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0031…485abacked Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes18c99.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9926236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes16c93.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.573228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes15c89.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.811,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed Yes17c86.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.811,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa393…c8debacked Yes18c86.32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.451421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes14c84.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5864333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb0c…ced7backed Yes20c84$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.583100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+268.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes25c83.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3716465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x948d…1a11backed Yes52c82.24$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.761376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes14c80$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.42240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes14c74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.44933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b0…a3d5backed Yes29c71.38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.381553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick29cpaid+48.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes34c71.27$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8754037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8bf…fef1backed Yes16c62.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd45d…583bbacked No73c61.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.552740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf730…47a3backed No77c51.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…6732backed Yes29c51.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.23243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5c…0398backed Yes32c48.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+217.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes25c43.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6818035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c39.45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.022,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf1…63c8backed No78c38.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.04366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6bc0…f481backed Yes47c35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.458100%8 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x63a1…8acbbacked Yes31c34.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.671752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xece5…c252backed No76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.82065%13 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63a4…9281backed No73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d7…5cf7backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16580%4 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb0…1b9ebacked No71c16.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.594252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9856…7014backed No67c15.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.684459.1%26 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe80f…eaa5backed No70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5540%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.