Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23879a9298dc76eef39ed817a46fe99e27eeaaa63342a3f1c5c114724e4c4d45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81f4…6a3ebacked Yes | 0c | 19,290$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 0c | 5,238$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 1c | 3,502$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 1c | 3,470$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 3,445$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 1c | 1,576$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 1c | 1,249$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 2c | 980.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…a3d5backed Yes | 3c | 893.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 29cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa580…b99abacked Yes | 3c | 768.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…edfbbacked Yes | 2c | 722.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…0058backed Yes | 3c | 622.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 3c | 432.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 413.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf47c…2404backed Yes | 4c | 371.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 4c | 367.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 5c | 267.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb99…b393backed Yes | 6c | 163$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…eda6backed Yes | 8c | 123.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.