TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$241,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$297,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,692 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6503…09f6backed Yes0c95,027$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.531735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116c…0685backed Yes0c20,992$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.988122.2%18 W · 63 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc683…ba10backed Yes0c7,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49e4…6db2backed Yes2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick2cpaid+525%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4492…8b9abacked Yes1c3,494$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa331…29b9backed Yes1c3,027$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked No80c2,092$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.3947834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes2c1,024$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162250%11 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a54…4ec0backed Yes2c1,020$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c64…348fbacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202611.5%3 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+476.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f81…5410backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d38…824cbacked Yes76c798.7$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.883129%9 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes67c790.91$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.1583332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes2c775$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.042626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed No59c721$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.16538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes2c693.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8896313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50bc…d38fbacked Yes72c547.94$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3961127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf43d…dd08backed Yes62c527.69$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.261782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes4c524.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2132147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No38c508.42$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.1886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No57c495.41$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.282,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes58c428.3$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No49c416.7$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.1817243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No45c375.04$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.843,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf7…9f98backed No36c375.04$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.03933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes49c374.34$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.31,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No47c360.4$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.8584759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf730…8a0abacked Yes64c349.19$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.652433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No45c305.62$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.337,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes45c293.97$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.341,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa462…0fb2backed Yes60c250.21$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1111920.2%24 W · 95 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes37c249.4$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6810227.5%28 W · 74 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf43c…989bbacked Yes40c223.24$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.412737%10 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes20c217.81$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4565625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes48c215.8$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes50c210.47$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.271,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf82…e079backed No24c207.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.123844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes58c201.72$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11718727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes75c201.3$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.976852.9%36 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes54c197$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.235850%29 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed Yes56c178.34$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.09966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed Yes52c175.01$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.663435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No43c157.15$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.954953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed Yes60c155$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-61.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No40c155$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9325947.5%123 W · 136 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Yes70c150$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No43c146.04$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7534457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41cd…a24abacked No59c125.89$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.041154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No51c125.76$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9911436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No24c125$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7526339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e13…2ac4backed No50c124.79$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.98825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-48.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf2e…e069backed Yes65c123.43$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.77366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eee…bac2backed Yes52c110$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.56045%27 W · 33 L-6.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4e3…4cc6backed Yes79c101.18$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.041435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce15…5c0abacked Yes56c100.03$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5716036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.856139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0031…485abacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6f2…09babacked Yes51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7184…56d7backed Yes71c91.97$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+71.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes31c85.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5993034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes56c83.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.537832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f84…6f7ebacked Yes60c83.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51e0…1f63backed Yes52c81.53$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes62c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.52240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f2…1255backed No23c75$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes65c74$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.76933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes36c68.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5127246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes55c64.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.43228.1%9 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No16c64.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.739262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xd45d…583bbacked No51c60.96$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.042740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed No23c60.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.655919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ce0…41abbacked Yes65c60.42$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9231…b267backed Yes49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.43063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No42c58.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.831,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes69c57.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5819133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes51c56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.562846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf0f…2458backed No44c53.21$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.84753.2%25 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes49c53.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.185016%8 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed No45c52.13$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6728329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes62c50.81$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6764333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes59c50.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63a1…8acbbacked No27c50.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.991752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x968b…e4c5backed Yes60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307334.2%25 W · 48 L-10.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x383c…d1b8backed Yes54c49.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.631250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6af…398bbacked Yes57c49.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4198…d38fbacked Yes74c47.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.132759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No39c47.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7954037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f1…02dfbacked Yes44c45.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+86.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked No34c44.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.891435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72c7…b332backed Yes46c43.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x479e…8e0ebacked Yes55c42.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes52c42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9731567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a7…1686backed Yes55c41.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.57616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c4b…50f8backed Yes48c41.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cd0…9812backed Yes50c40.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.818842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.211436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.