TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,354
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,354 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes78c1,813$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.110751.4%55 W · 52 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ad1…6d88backed Yes65c1,126$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.541338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ea…104ebacked No43c819.54$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.921546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No34c687.95$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.472,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed Yes73c651.56$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.185451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes47c530.48$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.883332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe385…97abbacked No34c455.55$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.18475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e13…2ac4backed No34c439.58$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.59825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-48.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No46c419.72$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.0726339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No29c332.65$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5684759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No31c318.97$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5517243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes77c315.71$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9518727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes73c272.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1511646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf7…9f98backed No4c257.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No29c238.33$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1665625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c3…0e32backed Yes63c229.69$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.36250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No33c223.08$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.423,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes66c209.05$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.381,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No26c193.09$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c3…386ebacked Yes76c170.27$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf730…8a0abacked Yes63c157.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.542433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No9c149.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.071,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No38c148.73$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.781,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes53c145.3$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.254963.3%31 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0031…485abacked Yes64c140.32$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.91637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde33…1496backed Yes67c140.29$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.63520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-70%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa52f…8897backed Yes60c136.5$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.61631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes62c136.23$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.251,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fa…f447backed Yes77c129.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef5…4cc6backed No65c125.17$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick71cpaid-61.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e100backed Yes55c118.16$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3513025.4%33 W · 97 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.393435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes61c98.3$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.986139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x365f…e1d0backed Yes75c97.69$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.428253.7%44 W · 38 L-10.2wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-19.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc23c…e889backed No38c96.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.885371.7%38 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No47c92$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.244,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6608…533bbacked Yes38c90.58$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.58520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No38c79.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.288,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe82…7056backed Yes69c79.31$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.495424.1%13 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.766538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes74c75$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7515558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4614251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd791…c3bbbacked Yes40c71.45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.041127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed No57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1515759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No38c68.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1644553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes68c68.2$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.641,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No41c67.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.687,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c1…e644backed Yes69c66$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes61c65.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.787832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5490…c716backed Yes60c65.01$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.175154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1232…14efbacked No63c63.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes75c62.05$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.562254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick60cpaid+10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb26d…20d4backed Yes60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf45…3543backed Yes41c59.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes63c58.72$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4e3…4cc6backed Yes60c57.16$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.871435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes76c56.85$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6921847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9231…b267backed Yes51c55.33$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.113063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0df…9bfcbacked Yes73c53.79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4169…98e9backed No42c52.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.011866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.526236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc81b…b3c7backed Yes63c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.72045%9 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc259…24aabacked Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0f…2458backed No44c49.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.994753.2%25 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes41c48.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8210726.2%28 W · 79 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa629…fe39backed Yes38c48.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.285446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0312…c713backed Yes61c47.91$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1309…4324backed Yes60c44.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes58c44.05$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3193034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaacb…f0fabacked Yes47c42.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No41c41.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.878551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x162e…986bbacked No49c40.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207055.7%39 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x838c…5252backed Yes69c40.45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.451225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes80c40.27$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1311359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No28c40.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1712251.6%63 W · 59 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2372726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x468f…a738backed Yes66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.62536%9 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e32…2635backed No28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.151926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0470…6811backed Yes56c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3543…c63fbacked Yes61c39.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.755947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa4b…6b39backed Yes51c38.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.92862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed Yes64c38.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.671963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No40c37.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9692028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d38…824cbacked Yes75c36.59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.053129%9 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0ba8…3687backed Yes55c36.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7464…71cfbacked Yes67c36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x968b…e4c5backed Yes67c35.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.757334.2%25 W · 48 L-10.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No43c35.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2934457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe211…c34fbacked Yes45c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.254959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes62c33.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.733930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa59d…f9a2backed Yes62c32.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68fe…ce12backed Yes63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f0…ecc0backed Yes68c30.91$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70bb…3413backed Yes36c30.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+180.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee75…d92fbacked Yes66c30.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.111050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf82…e079backed Yes67c30.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.073844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.