Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8219da1d300c55e13ce8fc61608ef1a6ec6574bf98bc998413fb0e7105c54dec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 78c | 1,813$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.1 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…6d88backed Yes | 65c | 1,126$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ea…104ebacked No | 43c | 819.54$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 34c | 687.95$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.47 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 73c | 651.56$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.18 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 47c | 530.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…97abbacked No | 34c | 455.55$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…2ac4backed No | 34c | 439.58$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 46c | 419.72$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.07 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 29c | 332.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 31c | 318.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 77c | 315.71$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 73c | 272.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf7…9f98backed No | 4c | 257.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 29c | 238.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Yes | 63c | 229.69$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 33c | 223.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 66c | 209.05$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 26c | 193.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…386ebacked Yes | 76c | 170.27$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 63c | 157.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 9c | 149.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 38c | 148.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes | 53c | 145.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…485abacked Yes | 64c | 140.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde33…1496backed Yes | 67c | 140.29$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 60c | 136.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 62c | 136.23$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fa…f447backed Yes | 77c | 129.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef5…4cc6backed No | 65c | 125.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 71cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e100backed Yes | 55c | 118.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 61c | 98.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 75c | 97.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 38c | 96.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 47c | 92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…533bbacked Yes | 38c | 90.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 38c | 79.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Yes | 69c | 79.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 74c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd791…c3bbbacked Yes | 40c | 71.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 38c | 68.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 68c | 68.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 41c | 67.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…e644backed Yes | 69c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 61c | 65.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 60c | 65.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…14efbacked No | 63c | 63.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes | 75c | 62.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…20d4backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf45…3543backed Yes | 41c | 59.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 63c | 58.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…4cc6backed Yes | 60c | 57.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 76c | 56.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed Yes | 51c | 55.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0df…9bfcbacked Yes | 73c | 53.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 42c | 52.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…b3c7backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…24aabacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 41c | 48.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 38c | 48.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0312…c713backed Yes | 61c | 47.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1309…4324backed Yes | 60c | 44.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 58c | 44.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…f0fabacked Yes | 47c | 42.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 41c | 41.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 49c | 40.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed Yes | 69c | 40.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 80c | 40.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 28c | 40.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…a738backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…2635backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0470…6811backed Yes | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4b…6b39backed Yes | 51c | 38.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 64c | 38.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 40c | 37.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 75c | 36.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba8…3687backed Yes | 55c | 36.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7464…71cfbacked Yes | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 67c | 35.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 43c | 35.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 62c | 33.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa59d…f9a2backed Yes | 62c | 32.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…ce12backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f0…ecc0backed Yes | 68c | 30.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…3413backed Yes | 36c | 30.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…d92fbacked Yes | 66c | 30.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…e079backed Yes | 67c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.