TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,916
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,916 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb245…5ed6backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1119…6a81backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa629…fe39backed Yes23c3,615$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.355446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No76c3,066$2,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.145451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes1c2,944$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.33652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes14c1,932$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.6426339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No39c1,662$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.49728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-42.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,110$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.462,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes2c1,054$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1917644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes8c1,012$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0410726.2%28 W · 79 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes9c985.16$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5347834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b6a…db19backed Yes32c971.86$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.0414719.7%29 W · 118 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+126.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes41c869.4$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.3983332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9959…9b03backed Yes6c858.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57dd…72cbbacked No62c599.99$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c75…a28ebacked Yes3c532.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.622343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x116c…0685backed Yes5c488.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.598122.2%18 W · 63 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cf7…9f98backed No54c453.99$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.99933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes59c409.55$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.77832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes6c387.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.371,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe82…7056backed Yes35c370.5$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.215424.1%13 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes10c365.57$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.863228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes4c349.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2518727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2c3…0e32backed Yes38c347.25$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No77c343.98$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.832,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes10c318.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes5c299.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1536123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No41c277.2$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.62142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes9c248.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.991,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed Yes6c246.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.071,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8888…bebabacked Yes34c223.76$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes6c220$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.327246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes6c209.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.41,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41cd…a24abacked No60c202.4$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.961154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc81b…b3c7backed Yes30c202.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.222045%9 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9d…5954backed Yes5c201.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.036725.4%17 W · 50 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No75c199.77$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7112251.6%63 W · 59 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff51…6918backed Yes45c198.52$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c82…85afbacked Yes46c198.38$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes16c188.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.639262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No55c184.54$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.391,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9551…8c45backed No69c175.31$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.453571.4%25 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9219…d304backed Yes31c161.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes10c146.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c145.76$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes62c143.84$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.743930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes15c139.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.46139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6839…a6d2backed Yes30c134.86$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.55837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+52.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes15c120.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.361,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x468f…a738backed Yes11c120$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.22536%9 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes22c118.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4665625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ad1…6d88backed Yes40c110.53$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.81338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb96b…61afbacked Yes28c107.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.122722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes46c104.55$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6313223.5%31 W · 101 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd791…c3bbbacked Yes38c102.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0031…485abacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9995942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbf2e…e069backed No62c96.9$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.11366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e4f…d890backed No52c95.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.014325.6%11 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes15c92.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9454037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes22c92.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5111359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3e11…2721backed Yes34c92.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+95.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb550…84fbbacked Yes63c79.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c11…1992backed Yes36c79.31$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.45540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf45…3543backed Yes40c73.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdab0…8463backed Yes24c72.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-35.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No73c69.51$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.88551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes48c69.09$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.318348.2%40 W · 43 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+4.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes48c68.01$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5716465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe3b0…932dbacked Yes45c65.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb21d…76d2backed Yes49c61.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5490…c716backed Yes39c58.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.865154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e32…2635backed No45c50.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.891926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.520631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3161…623dbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82050%10 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f4…6a3ebacked Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b5…6d52backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107057.1%40 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed No65c49.21$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2228329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x365f…e1d0backed Yes59c49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.018253.7%44 W · 38 L-10.2wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-19.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfb96…794cbacked No42c47.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.791428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43a9…faebbacked Yes61c42.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.07850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1617…d39fbacked Yes47c42.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe211…c34fbacked Yes53c41.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.144959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No73c41.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3644553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7410352.4%54 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b8…271bbacked Yes63c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.22520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-70.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked No74c39.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.271435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0f7…7df6backed Yes37c37.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.761330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34d2…addebacked Yes49c36.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182119%4 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4e3…4cc6backed Yes49c35.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.441435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No64c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a6e…8fe0backed No77c34.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.09850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c26…9b6fbacked No74c34.47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.852330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb26d…20d4backed Yes53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacb…f0fabacked Yes70c28.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b36…c0e7backed Yes58c27.69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.931776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xddb9…533fbacked Yes50c26.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.31742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed18…39d9backed No74c26.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.86955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.