Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe996603e0f8fc53d4b74158692dfa48c90c29f2252edb5bbac07b5f275b8883
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf1…6eb1backed Yes | 0c | 32,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 2c | 3,263$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…96babacked Yes | 3c | 1,972$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 1c | 1,753$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…8bf4backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,364$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 3c | 1,014$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 2c | 894.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…60a0backed Yes | 2c | 746.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 11c | 678.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed Yes | 5c | 531.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 434.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 5c | 416$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 368.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 14c | 354.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 11c | 289.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 289.64$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 8c | 246.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 168.43$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…271bbacked Yes | 9c | 165.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cd…a24abacked No | 67c | 145.48$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 9c | 142.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9e…1217backed No | 69c | 137$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 30c | 132.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…2635backed Yes | 12c | 121$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…83babacked Yes | 37c | 107.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 76c | 103.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…a738backed Yes | 22c | 99.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 19c | 99.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 93.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…547ebacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 23c | 73.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…d6e6backed No | 79c | 69.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 28c | 64.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…24aabacked Yes | 34c | 59.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 30c | 57.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…72cbbacked No | 72c | 50.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa91f…55afbacked Yes | 28c | 42.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…c007backed Yes | 28c | 42.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…97abbacked No | 78c | 41.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610c…998fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 69c | 36.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 68c | 35.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed No | 78c | 32.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed18…39d9backed No | 78c | 24.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc175…8b21backed No | 78c | 23.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…c252backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.