Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ebfff2501ec3c6cb27b89d33eabe7c79e95b0cd7c94df34fc1b7adc2ace8733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,349 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 953.27$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 792.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 758.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 8c | 714.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.6 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 9c | 650.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.9 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 48c | 607.68$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.8 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 50c | 605.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.81 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 15c | 562.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.47 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 8c | 532.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.57 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 77c | 448.67$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.75 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 433.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed No | 2c | 416.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 70c | 375.16$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.02 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 15c | 316.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.87 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 10c | 313$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.38 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 42c | 304.28$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.41 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 41c | 304.14$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.55 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 287.44$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 5c | 269.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.2 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 32c | 267.71$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.03 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 17c | 246.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.97 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 7c | 229.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.53 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 36c | 217.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.48 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 72c | 203.22$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 15c | 195.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.25 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 52c | 169.77$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 17c | 160.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.57 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 14c | 145.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 38c | 132$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 77c | 127.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 118.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6538…e311backed Yes | 17c | 112$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 23c | 110.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 71c | 105.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…2781backed Yes | 19c | 104$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +430.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…6822backed Yes | 20c | 103.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 102.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 18c | 99.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…1f96backed Yes | 19c | 95.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 95.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 16c | 95.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 93.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f71…65a3backed Yes | 19c | 88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +423%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6822…2595backed Yes | 16c | 86.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +522.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 23c | 73.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 22c | 72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 22c | 67.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed Yes | 30c | 67.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 73c | 66.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 68c | 64.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 19c | 60.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 58.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 80c | 55.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d385backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 44.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…ecc4backed Yes | 74c | 42.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 78c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…882abacked Yes | 56c | 35.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 67c | 31.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…3760backed No | 73c | 30.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…6fd5backed No | 71c | 28.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b86…22f1backed No | 65c | 27.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 77c | 26.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 80c | 19.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 18.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.