Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32e24b48e6a3bc30952b3f0c2df80d433938e99c82c4aaa0248bc032a2dae049
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,522 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,416$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 15c | 727.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…fe61backed Yes | 6c | 727.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 57c | 533.51$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.55 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 480.43$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 402.23$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.39 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 24c | 359.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 337.11$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.92 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 42c | 331.75$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 320$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 314.86$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 313$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…e400backed Yes | 47c | 300.49$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 45c | 289.3$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…da8bbacked Yes | 37c | 286.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 268.85$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 28c | 262.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…a5cabacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 41c | 215.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 48c | 210.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 35c | 208.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…1f39backed Yes | 52c | 190.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…fff5backed Yes | 48c | 186.91$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 185.06$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 10c | 175.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe26e…036bbacked Yes | 47c | 170.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 167.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 40c | 167.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 27c | 160.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 154.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…ce97backed Yes | 33c | 138$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…a6c1backed Yes | 31c | 137$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 44c | 135$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…fb66backed Yes | 33c | 123$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 64c | 117.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 51c | 114.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 30c | 114.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 111.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 13c | 110.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9e…0951backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 109.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…0955backed Yes | 33c | 104.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 12c | 103.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 39c | 102$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 34c | 100.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed No | 50c | 100.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 80c | 94.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 43c | 93.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 17c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…6865backed Yes | 34c | 83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 82.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes | 38c | 76.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 73.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 27c | 73.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 38c | 69.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 30c | 66.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…7cb3backed No | 69c | 66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 39c | 63.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 48c | 62.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 23c | 57.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 52.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 24c | 52.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 50.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…5e90backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d385backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…503abacked Yes | 31c | 49.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 61c | 49.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 63c | 47.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 54c | 47.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd5…46b6backed No | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 37c | 45.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 38c | 45.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3243…365fbacked No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9641…5385backed Yes | 45c | 44.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…6d23backed No | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x568c…f423backed No | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc83a…dff6backed No | 67c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 49c | 39.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…a26bbacked No | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…41d2backed Yes | 39c | 38.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 52c | 37.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 51c | 37.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…8cb0backed Yes | 36c | 36.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…5666backed Yes | 43c | 36.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.