TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,522

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,522 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes1c2,416$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5435018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes15c727.89$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x95aa…fe61backed Yes6c727.28$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.642425%6 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No57c533.51$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.553,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes39c480.43$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.6517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No59c402.23$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.391,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes24c359.4$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.777428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes40c337.11$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.921,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes42c331.75$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4322023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes4c320$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.456,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes44c314.86$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.817,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes35c313$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.341,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c3a…e400backed Yes47c300.49$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d8c…0977backed Yes45c289.3$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.966315.9%10 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab77…da8bbacked Yes37c286.22$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.91729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No58c268.85$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2291967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes28c262.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3433139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…a5cabacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes41c215.43$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.238840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes48c210.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes35c208.58$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3356434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e36…1f39backed Yes52c190.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…fff5backed Yes48c186.91$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No69c185.06$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.451,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes10c175.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9671823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe26e…036bbacked Yes47c170.09$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No58c167.9$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.713,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes40c167.58$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5211337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes27c160.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.595527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c154.15$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.48,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes33c150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d0…ce97backed Yes33c138$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x599f…a6c1backed Yes31c137$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes44c135$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.45141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e85…fb66backed Yes33c123$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.59250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No64c117.18$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1841070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes51c114.82$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0519426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes30c114.2$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.221,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes17c111.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.262,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x766e…75f6backed Yes13c110.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6916518.2%30 W · 135 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9e…0951backed Yes31c110$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c109.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x983a…0955backed Yes33c104.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes12c103.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8754037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes39c102$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.979626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes34c100.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5440438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05a1…89f9backed No50c100.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.172334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8f4…c82cbacked No80c94.13$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.837860.3%47 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes43c93.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes17c85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.864333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a6…6865backed Yes34c83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No74c82.29$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6658349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes38c76.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.132231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No68c73.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5270770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Yes27c73.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4213523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes38c69.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5911835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes45c66.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe630…76f9backed Yes30c66.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+32.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x68d3…7cb3backed No69c66$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes39c63.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4148…d2f6backed Yes48c62.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304062.5%25 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9532044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.842,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes23c57.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5657232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes28c52.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8256721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes24c52.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.463625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No50c50.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.431,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x332c…5e90backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ca…d385backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.58551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f1…946cbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+40%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2018041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0848…503abacked Yes31c49.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.442213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-46.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No61c49.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1318761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed No63c47.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.56714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-77.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8638…2d36backed No54c47.23$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.712954.3%70 W · 59 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdd5…46b6backed No69c47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.573100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes37c45.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7652245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes38c45.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.174736.2%17 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3243…365fbacked No67c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9641…5385backed Yes45c44.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f49…6d23backed No67c43$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x568c…f423backed No67c43$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc83a…dff6backed No67c41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.818842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No63c39.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.681,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba8…8d3cbacked No49c39.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.189055.6%50 W · 40 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6301…a26bbacked No67c39$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7d…41d2backed Yes39c38.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.17742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes52c37.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5316437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes51c37.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1933839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd833…8cb0backed Yes36c36.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x627a…5666backed Yes43c36.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x299a…9e6fbacked Yes28c36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.083033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Yes33c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.558636%31 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.