Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe855087fe2d23b73f2e36a743133f82a2b107e5cdf749b9bbb0240a88f6a291b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,950 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf13b…449ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,510$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 668.49$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 13c | 555$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…e400backed Yes | 31c | 482.2$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 453.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 45c | 401.96$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.1 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 368.17$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.64 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 49c | 338.95$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.59 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 30c | 328.65$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 50c | 320.1$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.62 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 40c | 313$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 50c | 278.09$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 25c | 233.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 224.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 215.98$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 32c | 208.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 49c | 203.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 29c | 199.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 62c | 199$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 197.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed Yes | 56c | 179.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x342d…3f9fbacked Yes | 45c | 176$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 59c | 168.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb183…b63dbacked Yes | 42c | 168$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 40c | 165$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 55c | 160$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…f98bbacked Yes | 68c | 146.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 136.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…19e6backed Yes | 46c | 135$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 41c | 132.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4f…47d1backed Yes | 46c | 129$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 60c | 126.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101b…ea62backed Yes | 52c | 125.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 28c | 123.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 122.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 42c | 118.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b06…8eb2backed Yes | 48c | 117.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…fff5backed Yes | 42c | 114.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 22c | 104.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 100.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 95.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 37c | 93.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 69c | 85.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 81.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 34c | 80.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 19c | 78.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 55c | 78.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…b2aebacked Yes | 31c | 77.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 76.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…52f0backed No | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 40c | 70.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 36c | 69.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 21c | 68.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4e…45fbbacked No | 55c | 68.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 40c | 66.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…6865backed Yes | 46c | 66.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…53d7backed Yes | 68c | 65.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 31c | 65.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 36c | 64.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 64.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538f…c871backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 34c | 58.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 56.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 35c | 51.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 51c | 48.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d3…d1fabacked Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 44c | 47.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 62c | 46.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d09…f358backed No | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe52…bdb3backed No | 57c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…8032backed Yes | 66c | 45.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cf…184fbacked No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…5807backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 80c | 44.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81df…0186backed No | 58c | 43.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c4…febcbacked Yes | 50c | 42.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 46c | 41.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 31c | 41.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…bb8abacked No | 48c | 40.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3973…1477backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 45c | 39.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 46c | 38.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.