TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,950 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf13b…449ebacked Yes1c1,510$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes47c668.49$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.416,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes13c555$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9335232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2204,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c3a…e400backed Yes31c482.2$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.211330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c453.15$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No45c401.96$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.142857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No74c368.17$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6491967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes49c338.95$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5977428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes30c328.65$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.345527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No50c320.1$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.6262555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes40c313$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes50c278.09$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.211,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes25c233.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c224.92$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.767,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No72c215.98$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.933,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes32c208.21$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9311337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes49c203.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes29c199.87$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.563333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No62c199$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0786050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No48c197.63$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.148,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea4c…0e79backed Yes56c179.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x342d…3f9fbacked Yes45c176$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes59c168.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb183…b63dbacked Yes42c168$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes40c165$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.15141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes55c160$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.288028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x521c…f98bbacked Yes68c146.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c136.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.751,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6547…19e6backed Yes46c135$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes41c132.43$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8223231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c4f…47d1backed Yes46c129$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No60c126.77$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2458349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x101b…ea62backed Yes52c125.43$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes28c123.65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3116520.6%34 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No59c122.72$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.671,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No42c118.24$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2459440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b06…8eb2backed Yes48c117.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…fff5backed Yes42c114.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.752,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes22c104.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4119426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes48c100.63$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5416036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.940438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2113748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5531341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes18c99.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No60c95.64$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.211,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed No37c93.88$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.297552%39 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No69c85.23$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4338840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No75c81.3$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.411,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes34c80.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5811146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed Yes19c78.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.173920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No55c78.17$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8171823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef2b…b2aebacked Yes31c77.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.561526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No65c76.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9170770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb253…52f0backed No55c72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31e…6a43backed Yes42c71.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305538.2%21 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes40c70.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2832352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes36c69.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.198551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x368c…e8d5backed Yes21c68.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.536243.5%27 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb4e…45fbbacked No55c68.08$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No40c66.66$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.291,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2a6…6865backed Yes46c66.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x591a…53d7backed Yes68c65.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.86450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes31c65.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205334%18 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No36c64.74$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1834651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes29c64.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.533,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes39c64.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011627.6%32 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-0.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x538f…c871backed No54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4148…d2f6backed Yes34c58.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204062.5%25 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No36c56.89$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No35c51.05$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2534219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes51c48.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2557659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5d3…d1fabacked Yes26c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-47.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes44c47.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.273625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes62c46.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.261,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d09…f358backed No55c46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe52…bdb3backed No57c46$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaeb…8032backed Yes66c45.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69cf…184fbacked No55c45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9551…5807backed No59c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No80c44.85$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9752245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81df…0186backed No58c43.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c4…febcbacked Yes50c42.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Yes46c41.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.458636%31 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes31c41.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.822023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…bb8abacked No48c40.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.09922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.818842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3973…1477backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99f1…946cbacked Yes61c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.23053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+40%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f21…c693backed Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.813167.9%89 W · 42 L+15.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed Yes45c39.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8710444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes46c38.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7554037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.