Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1900fb3a68445ceee90610f3d33f45c5f3924c410729e1e850ff4d73d679329d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 22c | 848.26$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 7c | 698.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 539.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 496.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 436.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…be54backed No | 77c | 429.35$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 20c | 420.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 360.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 12c | 334.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 34c | 293.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 269.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 235.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 13c | 235$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 171.65$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 22c | 146.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 77c | 137.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 135.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 18c | 129.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 75c | 120.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 103.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 75c | 100.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 26c | 96.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2680…a387backed Yes | 20c | 92.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 33c | 92.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 27c | 87.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 76c | 83.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked Yes | 16c | 74.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 20c | 74.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 20c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed No | 80c | 62.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb05b…58afbacked Yes | 25c | 56.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Yes | 36c | 54.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133e…1bb9backed Yes | 23c | 54.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 76c | 52.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…a48dbacked No | 78c | 44.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 37c | 40.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 28c | 39.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 69c | 33.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 72c | 29.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 70c | 28.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…f733backed No | 78c | 28.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 75c | 24.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 75c | 24.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 78c | 23.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 78c | 23.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 65c | 22.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 18.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.