Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ab97722f8208a33555a7fa918cb1aea0816138cfabe23a0de063c31c8c87e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 395.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 68c | 383.28$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 70c | 286.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 51c | 262.95$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.6 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e28…63d6backed Yes | 40c | 199.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 52c | 191.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 172.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 43c | 144.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 135.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 133.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 113.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.21 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…3beebacked Yes | 35c | 113.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 58c | 103.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea7c…b58ebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 40c | 89.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 45c | 89.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 87.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 86.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 31c | 81.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 48c | 78.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 25c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 26c | 76.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 75.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed No | 28c | 74.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 31c | 70.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0b…743dbacked Yes | 43c | 61.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 60.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed No | 78c | 57.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcd…44d7backed Yes | 31c | 56.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…0afdbacked Yes | 22c | 53.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 50.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 41c | 48.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…9747backed Yes | 28c | 46.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 56c | 44.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…7e0dbacked Yes | 60c | 44.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…c7b1backed Yes | 80c | 36.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes | 44c | 36.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 69c | 36.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 71c | 35.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 35c | 34.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…e020backed Yes | 44c | 33.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 72c | 32.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…4964backed Yes | 64c | 31.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 53c | 27.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 70c | 26.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed No | 62c | 26.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 23.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 65c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d4…2ba1backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed No | 73c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 79c | 14.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.