Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a520003440c99edd90a7639820081c824e60ef0196bbc9051771645c4a7cce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 0c | 6,095$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…916fbacked No | 0c | 2,807$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…b063backed No | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…91a1backed Yes | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 8c | 456.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 44c | 384.49$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.31 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…0b9abacked Yes | 34c | 357.67$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 343.58$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 21c | 281.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.33 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 64c | 252.66$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 50c | 252.48$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.21 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 79c | 233$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 8c | 200.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 169.19$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 162.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 149.63$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…2df8backed No | 14c | 148.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 26c | 145.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 8c | 144.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 139.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 23c | 130$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 118.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 61c | 103.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…be54backed No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 24c | 97.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 36c | 93.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 21c | 92.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 67c | 85.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…c9e4backed Yes | 33c | 84.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 29c | 83.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…3beebacked Yes | 42c | 78.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 78.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 77.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…3d62backed Yes | 23c | 77.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 43c | 77.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 35c | 76.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 46c | 71.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked Yes | 25c | 67.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 35c | 60.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 25c | 53.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac6…9658backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 62c | 47.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…ed95backed Yes | 44c | 45.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 73c | 44.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133e…1bb9backed Yes | 45c | 44.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 48c | 42.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 64c | 40.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 62c | 40.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 55c | 40.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 31c | 39.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 49c | 35.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 78c | 32.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…bd47backed Yes | 48c | 31.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…0ccdbacked Yes | 72c | 30.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x49c7…3e1dbacked Yes | 55c | 29.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 60c | 29.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…99f3backed No | 71c | 25.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 60c | 25.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 58c | 20.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 66c | 20.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 60c | 19.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed Yes | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…f733backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 68c | 14.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 75c | 14.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.