TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,599
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,599 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd9ef…4df2backed No74c3,035$2,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-52.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35a…e615backed Yes19c2,064$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.455824.1%14 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-46%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed6…1c9cbacked No73c1,900$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94d…eb35backed Yes27c1,900$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes47c1,754$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.7595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed No67c1,624$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.3327047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1603…852bbacked Yes25c1,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes23c870$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.618727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes24c705.64$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.147834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes51c663.86$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.056852.9%36 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf45e…ad30backed No75c600$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…78fcbacked No75c550$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes64c395.75$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.476538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5c4…c8d6backed No75c350$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes27c283.13$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.826258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x483a…8832backed Yes68c267.11$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.591540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c238.51$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed No80c209.52$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4215759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Yes13c200.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.388017.5%14 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes7c199.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a0…7b9cbacked Yes60c190.71$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151450%7 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf84d…5e65backed Yes41c177.24$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739256.5%52 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes31c169.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.61,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9039…d819backed Yes65c154.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes26c153.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes23c149.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.93831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes19c135.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.914338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes25c134.44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6416036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes13c129.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.91,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa52f…8897backed Yes24c124.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.431631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e10…b1ffbacked Yes47c109.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes11c103.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.549262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xf911…8d8ebacked No33c102.2$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2710246.1%47 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c101.21$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.043,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes42c100.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8633350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8896313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf697…b5c4backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-53.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed No63c99.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4923633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6419…5997backed Yes79c99.98$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No30c99.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3112744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes11c98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6154037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes28c96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.361435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc63d…6fdcbacked Yes58c86.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0467…846fbacked Yes40c85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.42744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes31c83.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.572,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes54c80.26$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.53342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes23c75.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5155919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71fb…b277backed No77c70.61$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.34757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes21c69.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.552,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b0…b4f4backed Yes23c68.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.77714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1c…3853backed No74c67.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.251323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7458…fa86backed No71c65.38$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.952326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes24c62.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.215839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe03e…2365backed Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-67.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes37c59.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.21,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes48c59.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2411436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes53c58.51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9892028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes38c57.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes29c54.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.052,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x609f…ada6backed No65c54$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a91…983fbacked No47c52.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5613942.4%59 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes22c49.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No61c49.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1163656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9642…a6a4backed No69c48.86$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.953452.9%18 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ed9…c127backed Yes23c47.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.885056%28 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef12…8e61backed Yes24c46.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.224231%13 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcca1…f08bbacked No59c45.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.88850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd30d…fd5dbacked Yes33c45.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.96656.1%37 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed Yes35c41.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.324852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec51…b1d3backed Yes47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7552…5845backed Yes35c39.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…af4ebacked Yes80c38.82$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x370c…3eb1backed Yes28c38.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.65742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+62.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes28c35.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0434633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b1e…1a42backed No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0032…e886backed Yes75c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.513537.8%51 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df4…34d5backed Yes45c28.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed No77c27.32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2810542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf43c…989bbacked Yes80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202737%10 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6715…eb49backed No56c24.36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.79540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x828c…371ebacked Yes65c22.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed No77c21.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8513946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdeee…7c09backed Yes53c20.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.969351.6%48 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x918e…b94cbacked No75c20.84$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes57c20.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9726828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.69048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…6732backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.84,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3258…40eabacked No75c16.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed No73c16.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4425447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.