Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb41fcfad6db681e1cabefed8e4551bbb1d65d3e7bd797b767393b9d58c48ddb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $197,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c9…e751backed No | 32c | 70,200$22,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,464 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41bf…ff23backed Yes | 68c | 70,195$47,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,462.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449a…a3c8backed No | 30c | 7,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…722cbacked Yes | 70c | 7,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c18…051cbacked Yes | 69c | 3,505$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…ab75backed Yes | 66c | 3,505$2,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…6568backed No | 31c | 3,504$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…ba4dbacked No | 34c | 3,502$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 36c | 1,918$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.95 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a0…5254backed Yes | 69c | 1,446$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.45 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 23c | 1,185$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.21 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 76c | 1,007$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.26 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 17c | 798.03$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.02 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 14c | 711.2$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.97 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 21c | 661.53$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.09 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed No | 79c | 631.53$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.59 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 15c | 604$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.4 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked No | 79c | 570.54$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.91 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 56c | 379.43$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.95 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 41c | 367.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.1 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 22c | 334.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.63 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed No | 7c | 309.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 60c | 241.39$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 214.32$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.12 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 28c | 190$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 37c | 189.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.89 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 188.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 8c | 187.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 54c | 185.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.34 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e63…e468backed Yes | 54c | 184.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63d…6fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 177.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e10…b1ffbacked Yes | 43c | 176.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 48c | 157.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 8c | 153.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 49c | 139.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 76c | 131.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…c535backed Yes | 46c | 130.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 37c | 126$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 61c | 122.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 56c | 118.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…7b9cbacked Yes | 71c | 115.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 35c | 114.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 41c | 96.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 45c | 95.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 25c | 92.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 30c | 89.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 48c | 89.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 41c | 88.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb422…b749backed Yes | 48c | 82.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…846fbacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 50c | 79.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…b277backed No | 52c | 76.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 66c | 76.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 67c | 74.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…ee19backed Yes | 69c | 72.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 42c | 72.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…ada6backed Yes | 40c | 69.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 66c | 68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked Yes | 61c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 36c | 64.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed No | 66c | 61.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd59d…dcffbacked Yes | 69c | 60.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 69c | 57.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 67c | 57.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 68c | 55.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…a6a4backed No | 56c | 55.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 54.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 57c | 53.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 67c | 52.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…742dbacked Yes | 58c | 50.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 65c | 50.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03e…2365backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 43c | 49.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c3…0501backed Yes | 72c | 45.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 32c | 45.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 76c | 45.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8346…df00backed Yes | 67c | 43.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 46c | 42.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d9…8758backed Yes | 71c | 42.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed Yes | 56c | 41.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 73c | 41.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked Yes | 47c | 40.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 39.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…120bbacked No | 61c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 40c | 37.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 80c | 37.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe923…0a10backed Yes | 67c | 36.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…96c1backed No | 45c | 36.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 51c | 36.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.