NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x655756cf62522b3699c67d4651a62d3d902ffa848ae8471d2e694892b2b5dd04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Bills, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Bills | 46c | 9,500$4,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,130 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Jets | 54c | 4,166$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.9 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Jets | 52c | 2,313$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.71 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Jets | 54c | 2,272$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.99 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Jets | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…15d4backed Bills | 48c | 1,257$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Jets | 54c | 1,210$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.5 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Bills | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jets | 54c | 382.81$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.72 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jets | 54c | 327$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Bills | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Jets | 55c | 304.61$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.89 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…2a13backed Jets | 55c | 220$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Bills | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Jets | 51c | 203.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.29 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bills | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Jets | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Jets | 53c | 129.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…fa4ebacked Bills | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Bills | 48c | 64.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Bills | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Bills | 48c | 41.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)this page
- Bills vs. JetsBills won
- Bills vs. Jets: O/U 45.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jets: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jets: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-5.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-7.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.