Ukraine · resolved market
Adam Schiff federally charged by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x469c8d7aff539738763a38bf67ac287402224df0a713a26438751563e8276742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 74c | 4,084$3,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 19c | 3,169$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.1 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,858$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.79 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 15c | 1,674$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.12 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 25c | 1,495$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…6e95backed Yes | 17c | 1,321$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 1,102$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 1,060$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.92 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed Yes | 20c | 1,024$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 22c | 907.97$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.36 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 21c | 804$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 757.16$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.12 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Yes | 24c | 661.5$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 79c | 566.8$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.85 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.51 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 15c | 438.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 416.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 15c | 374.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 51c | 315.53$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 70c | 294.1$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…9e9abacked No | 71c | 282.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 77c | 238$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 30c | 224.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 16c | 222$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked No | 73c | 202.63$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 38c | 195$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 34c | 165$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…cbccbacked Yes | 39c | 144.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 68c | 139.43$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 22c | 135.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 21c | 125.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 80c | 118.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 72c | 115.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb09e…0e53backed No | 80c | 113.75$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 30c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaae…11ddbacked Yes | 49c | 102.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 69c | 102.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 17c | 100.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 29c | 98.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 20c | 92.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 85.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 24c | 81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes | 30c | 67.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 17c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 33c | 60.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ac…a00fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 31c | 48.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…4dbcbacked Yes | 47c | 42.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed Yes | 28c | 40.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 76c | 40.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 53c | 37.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 54c | 37.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc2…c841backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…bbe8backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a3…041bbacked No | 69c | 29.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 62c | 26.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 56c | 25.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…3f80backed No | 80c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 73c | 17.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 73c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed No | 76c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.