Commodities · resolved market
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x261d9eab6278dd6f0c68b08a95fcc5f3354a60e1af0ee99309a7b2f373cbc841
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea29…3600backed No | 7c | 3,519$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 78c | 1,379$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.36 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…2f60backed No | 9c | 1,276$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…200cbacked No | 6c | 838.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 743.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed No | 11c | 648.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked No | 9c | 610$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…c55fbacked No | 17c | 602.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 571$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 455.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 14c | 330.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 10c | 312.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 10c | 273.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 15c | 262$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 22c | 230$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 9c | 210.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 73c | 190.17$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 21c | 172.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 16c | 126$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 123.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 113$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 16c | 95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8612…a89abacked Yes | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5896…447cbacked Yes | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…244abacked Yes | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…1c5dbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…d5ebbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?this page
- Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?No won
- Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?No won
- Will fewer than 75 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.