Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd6602e1152e6557a87e6d0bad683a21a2d5fa9132872543170ed6c5d1c53ed0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 23c | 4,991$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.01 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Yes | 80c | 3,771$3,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.24 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 2c | 3,099$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed No | 12c | 3,028$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.04 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 15c | 2,589$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.84 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 13c | 2,563$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.01 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed No | 12c | 2,425$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.68 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 1,910$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.45 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 13c | 1,639$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.18 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 20c | 1,518$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.49 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 73c | 1,488$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.08 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed No | 10c | 1,031$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed No | 15c | 1,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 11c | 968.32$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.19 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 13c | 945.46$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.21 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 10c | 908.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 11c | 904.02$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes | 76c | 874.37$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.37 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…0738backed No | 9c | 850.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 76c | 769.61$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.31 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 29c | 699.73$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.43 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 14c | 674.66$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 250 | 30.8%77 W · 173 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 492.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 62c | 464$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.32 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 9c | 440.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 11c | 419.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…cc69backed No | 18c | 419.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 9c | 388.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 71c | 353.54$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 29c | 311.89$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 70c | 311$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…b56fbacked No | 41c | 298.79$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 72c | 277.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 258.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 38c | 254.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 23c | 240.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…46b8backed No | 8c | 232.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed Yes | 59c | 224.04$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 40c | 220.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 202$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 195.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 60c | 182.12$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 14c | 180.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 10c | 150.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 29c | 145.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed Yes | 59c | 142.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 60c | 129.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 125.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 29c | 124.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 11c | 116.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…4128backed No | 59c | 110.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 109.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 28c | 108.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 20c | 106$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1c…1ec7backed No | 58c | 103.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 19c | 103.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 25c | 103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 10c | 100.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 16cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…a043backed No | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 20c | 98.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 15c | 82.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…7d80backed Yes | 64c | 78.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 50c | 77.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 48c | 73.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…d3fdbacked Yes | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked No | 60c | 66.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 172 | 40.7%70 W · 102 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc779…a904backed Yes | 58c | 59.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 57.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed Yes | 60c | 56.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 28c | 56.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 61c | 56.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…403ebacked Yes | 71c | 51.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ef…aeeebacked Yes | 53c | 51.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1613…6bb0backed Yes | 42c | 51.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +141%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…bbb3backed No | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x065b…714fbacked No | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…af42backed Yes | 60c | 42.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 44c | 39.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9175…6fedbacked Yes | 55c | 36.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…a02abacked Yes | 71c | 35.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes | 42c | 33.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…fccabacked Yes | 60c | 33.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff41…171abacked Yes | 71c | 32.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed Yes | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 31.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?this page
- Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?No won
- Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?No won
- Will Travis Grantham be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.