Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebb708843345cb7679137da7bac6aa67ce25ce2256e148a2511776b23e50f6d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 11c | 2,979$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.64 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 25c | 1,319$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.07 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 9c | 1,076$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed Yes | 19c | 1,026$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.38 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes | 28c | 943.42$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.64 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 15c | 902$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.62 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed No | 75c | 865.22$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.88 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 17c | 796.94$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…3d45backed Yes | 7c | 626.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 595.85$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.13 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 561.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 80c | 550$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 11c | 513.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 8c | 500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 16c | 333$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…c50ebacked No | 70c | 297.35$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 261$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 245.9$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 10c | 220$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 202.11$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 196.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed Yes | 13c | 138.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 125.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 68c | 118.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 18c | 90.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 87.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 68c | 84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 38c | 77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…403ebacked Yes | 31c | 67.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 67c | 53.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 25c | 48.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747b…a2d4backed Yes | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 42c | 30.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?this page
- Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?No won
- Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?Yes won
- Will Travis Grantham be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.