Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cce060810f3deb1a020db6d7e00a1bc7ecd4cc11a531613742bede29702934b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 30c | 7,082$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,938.92 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fef…89e4backed No | 1c | 5,791$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 52c | 3,638$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.31 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…778cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,876$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.07 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 1,735$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.94 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…cce5backed Yes | 17c | 1,206$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 5c | 1,113$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.47 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 8c | 1,060$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.25 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c25…92bfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +567.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 68c | 804.39$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 15c | 800$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5232…0ec5backed No | 41c | 696.84$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 625.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.9 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 8c | 529$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.94 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 10c | 496.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.52 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed Yes | 13c | 434.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.81 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes | 6c | 412.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.56 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +9.5wins | +0.24per pick | 12cpaid | +185%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…b5c3backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,296.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fef…0cc5backed Yes | 9c | 396.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.19 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4405…6a37backed Yes | 3c | 374.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +283.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 350$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.3 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4af…6a73backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 72c | 328.1$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked Yes | 8c | 316.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.88 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 10c | 298$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1dc9backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…5e17backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7561…8911backed Yes | 12c | 168.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +744.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 74c | 165.62$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.89 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x150b…99d4backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +214.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 67c | 133.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 14c | 101$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…9b56backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 15c | 83.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 42c | 71.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 77c | 70.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 75c | 57.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked No | 73c | 45.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e4…2420backed No | 75c | 43.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 40c | 35.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.