Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ad92107dbab2fdf45b0ed92dc5a7f721210759a648ae53fe363e26e3f62d29f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 17c | 330.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 14c | 204.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 20c | 188.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 78c | 161.76$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d2…61cebacked Yes | 77c | 137.04$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 53c | 129$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 79c | 122.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…f154backed Yes | 68c | 92.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 19c | 87.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 19c | 79.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 15c | 72.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 16c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 66.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 57.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 56.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…d414backed Yes | 72c | 54.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 76c | 49.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 47.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 28c | 46.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc46…3281backed Yes | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…73cebacked Yes | 80c | 27.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Yes | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 72c | 25.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…bcc9backed Yes | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 75c | 22.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…3781backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…4971backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?this page
- Will Alexa Avilés be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?No won
- Will Dan Goldman be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.