Us Politics · resolved market
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick out as US Rep by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf572a43d8592e5b729369e27e823bd60b2d725e1ea0c499875856161ba42474
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 1c | 3,300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 26c | 1,748$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.57 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 68c | 1,230$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.89 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked No | 39c | 856.43$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.88 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 799.95$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 70c | 498.29$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.74 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 22c | 476.59$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…91ffbacked Yes | 68c | 448.58$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed Yes | 72c | 370$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 58c | 344.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cc…779dbacked Yes | 78c | 339.98$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 6c | 296.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 65c | 260.07$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes | 40c | 237.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 36c | 226.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 20c | 182.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 28c | 175.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 129.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 76c | 118.74$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 15c | 117.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 10c | 102.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 24c | 97.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 20c | 93.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 86.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 27c | 80.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 24c | 76.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 69c | 74.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 74c | 66.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 59c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.35per pick | 62cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c62…0451backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…801cbacked No | 29c | 48.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…ded9backed Yes | 79c | 45.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…c919backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec5…4deabacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 60c | 28.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 59c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…c25cbacked No | 62c | 21.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d12…371abacked No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7f16backed Yes | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147b…2646backed No | 62c | 20.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…3588backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9223…fb06backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 73c | 19.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed Yes | 79c | 16.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.