Fifa International · resolved market
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddb6d1e7ac2aabd376465caf7a02f980e64036e6c76df02af94b5e178aada6f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 25c | 1,933$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.56 | 240 | 37.1%89 W · 151 L | -17.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 8c | 950.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 17c | 912.4$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 74c | 792.99$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.73 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…a399backed Yes | 14c | 728$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 73c | 504.97$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 17c | 430$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 8c | 325$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 20c | 314.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 21c | 312.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 119 | 28.6%34 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…e7b9backed Yes | 13c | 307$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 17c | 288.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 284.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…cf02backed No | 71c | 189.95$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 26c | 173.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 237 | 41.8%99 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 115.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 78c | 115$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 14c | 100.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 281 | 48.4%136 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 93.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 12c | 88.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3c…43c7backed Yes | 26c | 86.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…ed09backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 72c | 33.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches?this page
- Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?No won
- Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?Yes won
- Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.