Fifa International · resolved market
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb93a2ac80c5277762cb1034ba5a553486186dfc4dfe947107b7f949594b605cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6e5…7127backed Yes | 0c | 2,609$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…ca81backed Yes | 0c | 2,201$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…0053backed Yes | 7c | 948.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…6fb1backed Yes | 4c | 668.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2882…c53dbacked Yes | 4c | 589.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 16c | 526.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 240 | 37.1%89 W · 151 L | -17.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 22c | 429.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a54…6822backed Yes | 8c | 367.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…5ad8backed Yes | 4c | 359.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…0b29backed No | 79c | 271.42$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 27c | 252.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 119 | 28.6%34 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 245.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32fe…eb6fbacked Yes | 25c | 240.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 24c | 238.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 236.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 205.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed No | 75c | 186.93$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…7fc0backed Yes | 16c | 173.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 12c | 167.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ec…e6efbacked Yes | 31c | 154.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 11c | 139.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 123.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 24c | 117.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 107.06$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 88.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 76c | 78.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 75.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…8451backed Yes | 28c | 72.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 22c | 71.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf491…a078backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 58.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed Yes | 20c | 54.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…fec1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…51e3backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 70c | 43.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…deebbacked No | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches?this page
- Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?No won
- Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?Yes won
- Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.