NBA · resolved market
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x313787d313815069851d81a35de415dcfd9e223ced2a0ab19fcf9ad367ff0a76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a82…4a0ebacked No | 0c | 22,897$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 61c | 1,508$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.49 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e4f3backed No | 3c | 1,456$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -50%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 15c | 1,091$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.73 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 80c | 1,088$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.78 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 1c | 1,048$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -9.1wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x80af…0c19backed No | 4c | 779.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214e…3c01backed Yes | 5c | 775.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.72 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 33c | 764$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.53 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…1435backed Yes | 16c | 597.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.51 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 25c | 580.96$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 27c | 505$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 475.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 22c | 465.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 60c | 414.45$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 22c | 391.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.64 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b2ebbacked Yes | 39c | 390.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.73 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 261.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…0d8cbacked No | 46c | 150.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 32c | 142$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…dda9backed Yes | 37c | 138.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes | 39c | 135$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e7…a7e7backed No | 43c | 119.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…5cffbacked Yes | 68c | 89.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…d133backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +249.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…3307backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +250.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…e57bbacked Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +251.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 20c | 66.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc21…f03cbacked Yes | 34c | 50.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x396c…56adbacked Yes | 38c | 45.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b6…41a6backed Yes | 44c | 41.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…d363backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbb…77eebacked Yes | 34c | 37.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?this page
- Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?No won
- Will Brandon Miller lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?No won
- Will Derrick White lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?No won
- Will Donovan Mitchell lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?No won
- Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?No won
- Will Kon Knueppel lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?No won
- Will LaMelo Ball lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?No won
- Will Michael Porter Jr. lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?No won
- Will Payton Pritchard lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?No won
- Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?No won
- Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?No won
- Will Zach LaVine lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.