Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ef075c9da61c78ca84b708fe7f34aa14ec761319324db64dcf788dadf42445e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 23c | 11,005$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550.29 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 23c | 8,300$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.14 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed No | 77c | 7,273$5,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,690.66 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 21c | 4,167$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.2 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 26c | 3,938$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.7 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 19c | 3,445$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.54 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 22c | 2,515$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 27c | 2,262$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…8043backed No | 80c | 2,120$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked No | 76c | 1,815$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.52 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 1,400$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,149$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 6c | 725.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed No | 75c | 700$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 651$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.69 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked No | 73c | 600$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 18c | 499.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 18c | 445$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 75c | 300$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a94…ed73backed Yes | 25c | 281$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 24c | 254.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Yes | 8c | 254.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 73c | 250$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed No | 74c | 229.73$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92af…dbe0backed Yes | 14c | 215.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 79c | 180$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…0f96backed Yes | 26c | 173.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 10c | 166.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…3bd8backed Yes | 9c | 162.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0716…f036backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…75e3backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 141.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 25c | 101$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 80c | 100.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 23c | 74.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…cbb7backed No | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 74c | 43.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in September?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in September?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in September?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in September?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.