Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e9c3e84b978ac22266b9596c9fe5e6b1a14fce57ef521acfa8bcbf09c46d65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 28c | 13,213$3,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,477.12 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 35c | 9,010$3,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,825.58 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 24c | 5,024$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,817.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed Yes | 36c | 3,902$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,507.72 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 65c | 3,512$2,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.17 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 28c | 3,440$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,487.42 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 25c | 2,369$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.7 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 1,800$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 29c | 1,411$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.78 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 28c | 1,111$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ea…d556backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 40c | 750$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 650.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.45 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 25c | 632$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.62 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…705bbacked Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 27c | 450$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.61 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 36c | 375$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 34c | 364.09$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.45 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 5c | 349.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 24c | 340.41$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.46 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…4651backed Yes | 35c | 290$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 25c | 285$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.75 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fa…ad3cbacked Yes | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 73c | 221.48$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 220.6$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.49 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed No | 72c | 197.36$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…0972backed No | 71c | 175.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes | 29c | 170$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked No | 66c | 146.79$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…8043backed Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 40c | 135$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 130.65$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…0fecbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 74c | 64.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 71c | 61.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 52c | 59.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…303dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 19.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a92…f451backed Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c51…ec8dbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56d…d20bbacked No | 74c | 13.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in September?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in September?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in September?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.