Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e3d2a7b876818e57529f8bbb47df745104905eee1853ba38594c86d4ec3d6f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 45c | 15,870$7,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,206.84 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 41c | 8,018$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,263.49 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 52c | 6,174$3,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,186.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 46c | 5,458$2,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,513.95 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 49c | 4,990$2,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,552.07 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 49c | 4,812$2,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440.52 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 52c | 4,436$2,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,314.28 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 53c | 4,358$2,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.72 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 52c | 4,200$2,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203.79 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 50c | 3,378$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.22 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 47c | 2,099$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.52 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 50c | 1,881$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.19 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e27…c6bebacked Yes | 54c | 1,861$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 1,600$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.95 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Yes | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 49c | 1,451$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.09 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…c149backed Yes | 52c | 883.92$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 650.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.6 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked No | 55c | 641.21$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…75e3backed Yes | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 6c | 583$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes | 30c | 530$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…705bbacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 36c | 469$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.84 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 50c | 405$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.65 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 64c | 404.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 39c | 381.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 51c | 352$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.5 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…4651backed Yes | 54c | 350$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 349.07$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.85 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 40c | 336.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.67 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 49c | 265.19$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 39c | 256.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked No | 47c | 250.6$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 53c | 242.22$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 51c | 240$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Yes | 50c | 191.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 40c | 174.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 171.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 50c | 159.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 50c | 156.71$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 34c | 145.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67e3backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 49c | 116.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 61c | 112.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…0fecbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf7…0426backed Yes | 48c | 91.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…1c2fbacked No | 46c | 90.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 51c | 83.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a94…ed73backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b30…c0b6backed No | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 53c | 52.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…cbb7backed No | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0246…3f45backed Yes | 53c | 48.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…5be1backed No | 48c | 47.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf481…d5d2backed Yes | 53c | 43.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d6…b884backed No | 48c | 43.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a77…b018backed Yes | 51c | 39.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…303dbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 48c | 34.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…7a3fbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…cf9bbacked Yes | 39c | 28.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…7eb5backed No | 62c | 27.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 47c | 25.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 48c | 25.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in September?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in September?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in September?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.