Weather · resolved market
Will there be 13 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0c54d13a205b07ab3d2eb3c54cdffbbc8304bc2733ee6c340726ab9ab85fed3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 76c | 888$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked No | 19c | 558$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked No | 26c | 447.94$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed No | 24c | 440$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 21c | 429$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 24c | 409$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…95b1backed No | 46c | 338$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 79c | 329$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d896backed No | 76c | 287.43$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 76c | 279.4$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed No | 16c | 204.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…4d36backed Yes | 29c | 201.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 17c | 137.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb50…257dbacked Yes | 52c | 111.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 23c | 107.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 21c | 93.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 50c | 89.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 78c | 66.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…4a60backed Yes | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0a…dbf0backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 63c | 17.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 13 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?this page
- Will there be 11-13 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 3-5 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 5-7 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 9-11 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.