Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US loose jobs in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb927e938d29a050dca4b94a3283b6dd1bb0c412e6441cc39cbb147c3fbb0a14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 2c | 29,095$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 16c | 6,416$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.26 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked Yes | 11c | 3,903$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 9c | 3,388$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.18 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 10c | 3,063$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 12c | 2,707$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.26 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 13c | 2,500$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 13c | 2,309$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.6 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 6c | 2,156$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 2,046$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +1,104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,827$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 10c | 1,709$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 16c | 1,502$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.78 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 14c | 1,477$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 6c | 1,461$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 8c | 1,391$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.01 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…34a4backed Yes | 11c | 941.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 8c | 913.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 16c | 905.56$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.19 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 4c | 844.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed Yes | 6c | 775.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 1c | 748.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 4c | 679.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 6c | 609.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 5c | 414.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 399.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 6c | 385.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 6c | 376$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 349.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 11c | 295$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 4c | 286.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…227dbacked Yes | 14c | 278.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 14c | 249.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 15c | 199.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 16c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…6bf2backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 78c | 119.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f14…7c4cbacked Yes | 10c | 116.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked Yes | 13c | 109.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 23c | 100.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…2078backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…0454backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 14c | 90.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b78…f26dbacked Yes | 23c | 86.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 12c | 84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 77c | 18.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US loose jobs in September?this page
- Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in September?Yes won
- Will the US add between 100k and 125k jobs in September?No won
- Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in September?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in September?No won
- Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in September?No won
- Will the US add more than 125k jobs in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.