TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,840 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes28c7,504$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,391.1910433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes34c6,110$2,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,018.523821.1%8 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes62c5,706$3,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.78911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-82.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x991b…f19abacked Yes66c4,527$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6c4…0799backed Yes67c3,183$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes42c2,820$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,637.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No64c2,783$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.5112820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09da…6dffbacked Yes58c2,696$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.86728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes48c2,307$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.74742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No60c2,170$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.9223330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed No7c2,000$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No45c1,878$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.1780%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1318…df41backed No70c1,756$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.741233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes69c1,640$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.858636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked No40c1,590$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.636126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes45c1,523$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.11850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes39c1,489$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.614250%21 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes44c1,297$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.22728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes61c1,181$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.61030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed No53c1,172$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.14677.5%5 W · 62 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes42c1,155$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.811631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes63c1,093$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.51643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No61c1,083$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.331553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No57c1,074$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.8312049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked No22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2205819%11 W · 47 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes38c905$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.893920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc74…216cbacked Yes59c900$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes43c893.89$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.1222433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe20…67debacked Yes60c869.83$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.83250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x541c…c462backed Yes46c828.55$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.523119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No7c822.83$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.971040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes23c816.94$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.391330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No52c719$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca85…6bf2backed Yes44c651$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.76425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Yes34c650$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4292100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+137.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed Yes28c587$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.64742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No45c575.88$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.03850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes69c565.41$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No73c548.99$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e1…921ebacked No79c500$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No30c498.63$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2f…24debacked Yes52c473.18$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+90.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08f5…28e0backed Yes80c464.86$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes70c455.19$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.191546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce82…b52ebacked No44c454$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No7c426.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.15933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed No24c421.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No46c417.9$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+113.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed No10c379.29$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.68520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No77c354.99$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.42862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes58c347.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.25475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes68c345.63$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.974731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes69c327.77$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.9311039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes24c300$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2293713.5%5 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+1,104%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb3b…a2b6backed No4c299.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed No69c289.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.96650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No69c285.94$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.43151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94db…55f5backed Yes24c265.5$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.67633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes54c265.32$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed No54c263.82$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.83560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+48.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3049…7825backed Yes37c259.1$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+167.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No63c254$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.021250%6 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes64c250$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda50…442dbacked Yes39c219.93$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes41c210$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.87525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c202.44$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.6529913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No70c200.01$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.317528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked No42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-49.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf71…2ea2backed Yes21c190.48$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No47c175.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0711359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes22c170$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.451030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes49c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf42a…9f92backed Yes67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes72c146.58$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.43862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+41.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb72c…653ebacked Yes75c138.8$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+71.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes31c138.33$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7774…15d4backed Yes77c130$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes22c130$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.586429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes73c123.04$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.813928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No75c120$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.41353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cd5…ebc1backed Yes62c119.56$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed No58c108.46$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes46c100.78$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.65100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+83.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x41c1…44a5backed Yes62c100.77$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes50c100.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.21020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-66.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccd9…0454backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.21723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff94…c347backed Yes31c99.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.97560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No31c91.82$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0340%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes39c90$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.511258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes73c85.75$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes58c77.58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.561553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked Yes55c77.49$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa9e…f0f9backed Yes20c75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7778…5098backed Yes54c73.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55a4…94c1backed Yes76c69.74$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ca…ca7cbacked Yes54c67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7a…76eebacked Yes33c59.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31e6…fd8ebacked Yes70c55.06$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.