Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x349f0023914fb1464f47db15e91b9641ec4d354afe4d289526b54c0de3a8a69b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 28c | 7,504$2,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,391.19 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 34c | 6,110$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,018.52 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 62c | 5,706$3,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,143.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked Yes | 66c | 4,527$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…0799backed Yes | 67c | 3,183$2,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 42c | 2,820$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 64c | 2,783$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.51 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked Yes | 58c | 2,696$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 48c | 2,307$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 60c | 2,170$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.92 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 7c | 2,000$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 45c | 1,878$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed No | 70c | 1,756$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 69c | 1,640$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.85 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 40c | 1,590$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.63 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes | 45c | 1,523$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 39c | 1,489$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.61 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 44c | 1,297$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 61c | 1,181$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 53c | 1,172$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.14 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 42c | 1,155$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.81 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 63c | 1,093$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 61c | 1,083$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 57c | 1,074$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.83 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 38c | 905$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.89 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…216cbacked Yes | 59c | 900$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 43c | 893.89$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.12 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…67debacked Yes | 60c | 869.83$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 46c | 828.55$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.52 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 7c | 822.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 23c | 816.94$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.39 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 52c | 719$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…6bf2backed Yes | 44c | 651$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 34c | 650$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 28c | 587$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 45c | 575.88$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 69c | 565.41$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 73c | 548.99$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 30c | 498.63$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…24debacked Yes | 52c | 473.18$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…28e0backed Yes | 80c | 464.86$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 70c | 455.19$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…b52ebacked No | 44c | 454$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 7c | 426.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed No | 24c | 421.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 46c | 417.9$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 10c | 379.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 77c | 354.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 58c | 347.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 68c | 345.63$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.97 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 69c | 327.77$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +1,104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 4c | 299.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 69c | 289.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 69c | 285.94$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…55f5backed Yes | 24c | 265.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 54c | 265.32$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 54c | 263.82$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3049…7825backed Yes | 37c | 259.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 63c | 254$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda50…442dbacked Yes | 39c | 219.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 41c | 210$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 202.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.65 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 200.01$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf71…2ea2backed Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 175.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 22c | 170$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…9f92backed Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 72c | 146.58$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 75c | 138.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 31c | 138.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…15d4backed Yes | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 22c | 130$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 73c | 123.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd5…ebc1backed Yes | 62c | 119.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 58c | 108.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 46c | 100.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…44a5backed Yes | 62c | 100.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 50c | 100.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…0454backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 31c | 91.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 73c | 85.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 58c | 77.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 55c | 77.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…f0f9backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…5098backed Yes | 54c | 73.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a4…94c1backed Yes | 76c | 69.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ca…ca7cbacked Yes | 54c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…76eebacked Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…fd8ebacked Yes | 70c | 55.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in September?this page
- Will the US add between 100k and 125k jobs in September?No won
- Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in September?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in September?No won
- Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in September?No won
- Will the US add more than 125k jobs in September?No won
- Will the US loose jobs in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.