Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4f70f955092f6242ff5190d0cf6395a79be8d95424a4ce3cdf64b0848e20189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 14c | 18,516$2,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,529.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 11c | 15,738$1,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.84 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 16c | 9,174$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.22 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 24c | 8,726$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.4 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 22c | 6,511$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.52 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 24c | 3,075$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.11 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 2,800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 5c | 1,988$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 10c | 1,439$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.39 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes | 12c | 1,415$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 7c | 1,313$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 15c | 1,128$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.55 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…4f8bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,085$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…d8d7backed Yes | 12c | 835.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 781$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.02 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 74c | 730$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.6 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 10c | 650$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 10c | 626$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8099…7c5bbacked Yes | 9c | 588.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…f5ccbacked Yes | 21c | 583.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 13c | 571$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 73c | 568.66$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 13c | 503$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…eea2backed Yes | 12c | 466.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…d5aabacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff31…c8f9backed Yes | 13c | 415.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 15c | 414$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…55f5backed Yes | 10c | 400.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 13c | 372.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 8c | 359.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 9c | 310$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…9f01backed Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 23c | 299.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 30c | 278.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 32c | 270$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf52…30a5backed Yes | 7c | 219.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…8043backed Yes | 28c | 175.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…fa1dbacked Yes | 11c | 175.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…15b2backed Yes | 11c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 75c | 149.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…47c4backed Yes | 12c | 145.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…4651backed Yes | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 121$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…75e3backed Yes | 12c | 107.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…5b19backed Yes | 25c | 81.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 25c | 71.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 56c | 50.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…9a2dbacked Yes | 27c | 46.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 78c | 38.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…6ed3backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 79c | 31.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in August?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in August?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in August?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.