TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$148,014
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$147,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,014 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes47c27,711$13,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,098.468636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes52c15,466$8,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,066.8310433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes49c12,863$6,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,291.324027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes51c9,599$4,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,854.6122433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes54c8,936$4,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,823.383821.1%8 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes1c7,983$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.831526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick9cpaid+56.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No49c7,969$3,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,029.6623330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No56c6,511$3,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,832.989144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No50c5,639$2,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,836.8712820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…c149backed Yes47c5,587$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.442236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+208.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04ea…d556backed Yes51c5,144$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,604.031936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes52c4,310$2,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.485032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No47c4,212$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,24212049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1318…df41backed No50c4,174$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,104.731233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf650…1c51backed Yes51c3,659$1,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.651942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb525…705bbacked Yes50c3,150$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.52540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No46c2,863$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.762934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes42c2,250$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.434731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes50c1,856$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.4619931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e25…1531backed No48c1,560$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.842454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa53c…67a5backed Yes48c1,553$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.09633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes53c1,426$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.994250%21 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef41…2473backed Yes51c917.75$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.91127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e02…aa22backed No76c780.25$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.255100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+74%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes48c700$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3373426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes52c694$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.79540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c7…ac66backed Yes3c620.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc3…8819backed Yes54c578.52$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes52c560$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-51.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x53bf…15b2backed Yes54c551.57$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9e5…f261backed Yes54c480$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94db…55f5backed Yes54c475.76$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.29633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No46c467.11$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.84751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes53c400$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+59.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0e2e…9e7cbacked Yes51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3da…d974backed Yes39c361.88$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4350%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes57c355$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.596235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes45c351.38$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.6117528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes51c302.79$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+81%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1445022%11 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes42c300$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12614325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes45c289.15$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.451030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cae…aa17backed Yes55c283.44$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked Yes50c275.61$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.811526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2688…cb00backed Yes48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.51668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No46c247.05$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.931250%6 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No50c235$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.351643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes48c235$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+69.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6547…8043backed Yes48c230$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes53c226.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-86.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1c9…bc00backed Yes45c222$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x018a…4651backed Yes47c210$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.62123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes43c198.26$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.541428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a0a…db49backed Yes54c190$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.31442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No49c173$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.833070%21 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb821…0fecbacked Yes50c170$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.51631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x384a…39c0backed Yes53c150$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No48c145.01$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9415148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes55c143$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.554231%13 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f24…3ec6backed Yes47c135.87$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No60c128.57$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4311334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes45c122.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7214024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No48c103.35$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.091154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.620242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0375…07acbacked No55c98.59$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8c…256ebacked Yes52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94a3…67e3backed Yes53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbf7e…191ebacked No56c90.82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3531…48f1backed Yes56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c2a…afe4backed Yes47c88.2$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd374…5544backed Yes50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes54c75.93$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee5…0836backed Yes55c72.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed No49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes54c55.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No47c55.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.191060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc66c…6dc9backed Yes56c52.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No46c52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.081553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No50c52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.261060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c35…79ecbacked Yes47c51.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes45c51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.994344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c13…4ea6backed Yes45c51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d6…d67abacked Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee0…71f4backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cf…7387backed Yes53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe7c…22adbacked No52c45.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81a3…f452backed No56c42.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c1…78c1backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f88…f6bdbacked Yes51c39.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a49…b272backed Yes50c39.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…a407backed No51c38.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf7…0426backed Yes53c38.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.35714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc504…8cfebacked Yes53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b5…93abbacked No55c36.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27c1…3a8bbacked Yes55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes44c33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.